Wheat Market Surges on Robust French Output and Stable Global Prices

The wheat market currently finds itself at a critical juncture, buoyed by a remarkable production rebound in France and steady pricing across key global exchanges. The latest projections from France’s Ministry of Agriculture signal a 27% leap in soft wheat output for the 2025 season, following a year marred by drought and below-par yields in 2024. Favorable rainfall and subdued summer temperatures have set the stage for this resurgence, underscoring just how pivotal growing conditions are in shaping continental supplies and, by extension, the balance of global wheat markets. As Europe’s largest wheat producer, France’s reversal from 25.7 million tonnes in 2024 to a forecasted 32.6 million tonnes is expected to realign trading flows, ease pressure on regional buyers, and have a calming effect on global price volatility. At the same time, Black Sea origins and U.S. spring wheat regions continue to draw close scrutiny, with weather risks and supply logistics playing an outsized role in shaping market sentiment.

Traders are watching speculative activity and demand from North Africa and Asia closely for cues on future pricing. The prevailing market environment favors attentive risk management and strategic positioning, especially as supply recovery in the EU could soften bullish momentum—though this will depend on upcoming harvest data, global weather shifts, and policy moves in major exporting nations.

📈 Wheat Market Prices Overview

Exchange/Origin	Type	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Ukraine FCA	Protein min. 9.50%	Odesa	FCA	0.23	0.23	0.00%	2025-07-11	Stable
Ukraine FCA	Protein min. 9.50%	Kyiv	FCA	0.22	0.22	0.00%	2025-07-11	Stable
Ukraine FCA	Protein min. 11.50%	Odesa	FCA	0.24	0.24	0.00%	2025-07-11	Stable
Ukraine FCA	Protein min. 11.50%	Kyiv	FCA	0.23	0.23	0.00%	2025-07-11	Stable
France FOB	Protein min. 11.00%	Paris	FOB	0.27	0.27	0.00%	2025-07-04	Firm
US FOB (CBOT)	Protein min. 11.50%	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.21	0.21	0.00%	2025-07-04	Neutral
Ukraine FOB	Protein min. 11.00%–12.50%	Odesa	FOB	0.19	0.19-0.20	-0.01	2025-07-09	Softening

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• French Output: France projects 32.6 Mt for soft wheat (+27% y/y), with total wheat production (including durum) at 40.8 Mt for 2025.
• Acreage Recovery: Soft wheat area increases to 5.26 million hectares (2025).
• Yield Surge: Estimated yield at 6.2 t/ha vs. 5.6 t/ha in 2024—driven by improved rainfall and lower heat stress.
• Global Competition: Ample Black Sea supplies, with Ukraine maintaining steady export offers despite logistical risks.
• Speculators: CFTC reports show neutral-to-lightening net long positions in CBOT wheat, reflecting caution pending harvest confirmations.
• Import Demand: Egypt, Algeria, and Asian buyers remain active, but ample EU output could prompt buying pauses as buyers gauge new-crop flows.
• USDA Data: Last WASDE highlighted only modest global wheat stock declines; buffer stocks remain sufficient to offset sudden shocks.

📊 Production & Stocks Comparison

Country/Region	2024 Output (Mt)	2025 Projected Output (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)
France (soft wheat)	25.7	32.6	8.7
France (total wheat)	31.8	40.8	11.4
Ukraine	20.5	21.0*	7.3*
Russia	91.5	89*	20.0*
U.S.	49.3	48.8*	15.7*
Canada	32.2	33.0*	5.1*
China	137.7	138.5*	138.0*

*estimated

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Regions

• France: Near-term outlook remains favorable, with normal precipitation and mild temperatures heading into harvest. No drought or frost risks reported for major wheat belts.
• Ukraine & Russia: Recent rains have supported late development, but pockets of dryness in southern Russia could limit yields locally. No widespread weather threats currently forecast over the next 10 days.
• U.S. Plains: Some dryness in the southern Great Plains, though rain is in the forecast. Potential quality/yield variability possible.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Anticipate price stability as EU and Black Sea harvests come to market with larger than expected volumes.
• Medium-term: If French and Black Sea yields confirm or exceed projections, further downside risk to prices; maintain flexible hedges.
• Long-term: Watch for possible weather shifts in North America and any trade policy changes (export restrictions from Russia, e.g.) which could drive volatility.
• For physical buyers: Use dips to secure forward supply, especially for higher protein lots.
• For sellers: Consider forward selling into rallies as new-crop volumes start to pressure the market.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast (EUR/kg)
Ukraine FCA Odesa (Prot. 11.5%)	0.24	0.23–0.25
France FOB Paris (Prot. 11.0%)	0.27	0.26–0.28
US FOB (CBOT, 11.5%)	0.21	0.20–0.22

Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bearish near-term as ample European harvests approach physical markets. Volatility could return on adverse weather or if Russian export policy tightens.