Wheat Market Under Pressure: Sufficient Supply Drives Prices Down Across Key Indian and Global Regions

Wheat markets across major Indian regions and globally continue to face downward pressure as heavy supply and subdued demand weigh on spot and wholesale rates. In Delhi, persistent arrivals and heightened government procurement have driven prices to $0.39 per kg, down $0.04 from the previous session, while Gujarat has seen an even sharper decline to $0.38 per kg in some locations. Carryover stocks and steady arrivals from warehouses have sustained this bearish mood across India’s key grain markets, with little sign of a near-term uptick unless an export policy change or significant supply disruption emerges.

Ukraine and France, principal global exporters, report nominal price changes in EUR—Kyiv and Odesa remain stable with a slight uptick, while Paris maintains a competitive lead. Meanwhile, U.S. wheat at Washington D.C. holds steady. The fundamental backdrop, including solid government procurement, ongoing private stock release, and ample inventories, suggests prices could remain under pressure absent major global weather shocks or geopolitical escalations. Weather risks in critical regions such as the U.S. Midwest, the Black Sea, and Western Europe will be closely monitored for signs of production shocks.

📈 Prices: Key Wheat Market Levels

Region	Exchange/Market	Current Price	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Delhi	Wholesale	$0.39/kg	$0.43/kg	-9.3%	Bearish
Ahmedabad	Wholesale	$0.39–$0.41/kg	$0.43–$0.44/kg	-7.5%	Bearish
Odesa (UA)	FCA	€0.25/kg	€0.24/kg	+4.2%	Neutral
Kyiv (UA)	FCA	€0.24/kg	€0.23/kg	+4.3%	Neutral
Paris (FR)	FOB	€0.28/kg	€0.28/kg	0.0%	Stable
Washington D.C. (US)	FOB (CBOT)	€0.22/kg	€0.22/kg	0.0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India: Government procurement remains strong, but larger private stocks are being released as prices slipped, further adding to supply pressures.
• Ukraine: Reports of good harvest progress; FCA prices in Odesa and Kyiv show a slight uptick, suggesting marginally improved demand or shipping conditions.
• France: FOB Paris prices stable, reflecting balanced export and domestic use despite global pricing headwinds.
• Global: Abundant inventories and export competition among key exporters continue to limit upside potential.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production: Early harvest reports in Ukraine are largely positive, but U.S. yields in some Plains may be constrained by recent heat waves. India’s output remains steady, with no major crop loss events.
• Stocks: Global ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected near 260 million tonnes (USDA), keeping the supply-demand balance loose.
• Speculative Positions: Managed money continues to hold a net short in CBOT wheat, underscoring limited bullish conviction.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Risks

• India: No major weather disruptions; the monsoon is on schedule, supporting field conditions and reducing the risk of yield loss.
• Black Sea: Ukraine and Russia’s harvests are progressing under favorable weather; occasional rains are not expected to dent overall yields.
• US: The Midwest and Plains remain closely watched—short-term heat spikes could cut yields, but so far the overall situation is supportive for ongoing harvests.
• Europe: Showers improving grain fill in France and Germany; outlook supports high-quality output.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Snapshot

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)
India	112	23
Ukraine	22	4
Russia	82	21
US	50	14
EU	130	13
China	137	125
Egypt	9	2

📌 Key Market Drivers & Insights

• Heavy arrivals and warehouse releases continue to drive spot prices lower across Indian markets.
• Government procurement is robust, but active private selling is intensifying local supply challenges.
• Global export prices remain tight with marginal movement in the Black Sea, while Paris FOB holds steady.
• Speculative short positions on CBOT add to negative price momentum.
• Weather risks appear limited for now but warrant continued monitoring, especially for the U.S. and Black Sea regions.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Consider staggered purchases during this downtrend, favoring spot procurement to take advantage of weak prices in India and Ukraine. Monitor harvest progress in major exporting nations for early signs of price floor formation.
• Sellers: Prefer near-term sales to lock in existing prices as further downside risk remains. Monitor for signs of export disruptions or policy changes that may tighten supply suddenly.
• Traders: Watch speculative positioning for hints of short covering if weather concerns emerge or if export restrictions are imposed by major players.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Spot Price (Today)	Outlook Next 3 Days
Delhi Wholesale	$0.39/kg	Bearish to Neutral; likely $0.38–$0.40/kg
Ahmedabad Wholesale	$0.39–$0.41/kg	Little Change; $0.38–$0.41/kg
Odesa FCA (UA)	€0.25/kg	Stable; €0.24–€0.25/kg
Paris FOB (FR)	€0.28/kg	Stable; €0.28/kg
CBOT FOB (US)	€0.22/kg	Little Change; €0.21–€0.22/kg