The wheat market is witnessing a notable surge in prices as a direct consequence of tightening local supply and improved buying interest in both physical mandis and futures markets. With a pronounced shortage of traders, the liquidity crunch has pushed prices higher by approximately $3.10 per quintal across key Indian market centers. For example, in Madhya Pradesh’s Mandsaur mandi, the Lokwan variety fetched $39.18 per quintal, clearly outpacing average and mill-quality counterparts.
The underlying sentiment remains bullish with analysts predicting steady prices at current elevated levels as the weekend approaches—a scenario welcomed by producers but closely watched by millers and exporters concerned about input costs. Globally, modest but steady gains have been recorded, with CBOT futures ticking up 0.44% to $6.47 per bushel, and Paris milling wheat rising 0.33% to €230.25 per tonne. Market fundamentals remain well-balanced, with local shortages in producing regions contrasting with cautiously stable global inventories. Strategic buyers are now considering hedging options against further price appreciation, while ongoing international supply and demand dynamics are likely to keep volatility subdued in the immediate term.
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📈 Prices Overview
| Location/Exchange | Variety & Spec | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Currency | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandsaur (IN) | Lokwan | $39.18 per quintal | +3.10 | USD | Firm/Bullish |
| Kota (IN) | Average | $38.55 per quintal | +3.10 | USD | Firm |
| Rajkot (IN) | High Quality | $39.45 per quintal | +3.10 | USD | Firm |
| CBOT (US) | Futures | $6.47 per bushel | +0.44% | USD | Stable/Positive |
| Euronext (Paris) | Milling Wheat | €230.25/tonne | +0.33% | EUR | Stable/Positive |
| Kyiv (UA), FCA | Protein min. 11.5% | €0.24/kg | 0.00 | EUR | Steady |
| Odesa (UA), FCA | Protein min. 11.5% | €0.25/kg | 0.00 | EUR | Steady |
| Paris (FR), FOB | Protein min. 11.0% | €0.28/kg | 0.00 | EUR | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Local shortages caused by limited trader participation, boosting immediate buying interest and price levels in India.
- USDA’s recent supply and demand report highlights stable global inventories, keeping international sentiment balanced despite regional volatility.
- Harvest in major exporters like Ukraine and Russia remains steady, but logistical challenges could impact physical flows to global markets.
- Speculative positions remain moderate, supporting low volatility in futures markets.
📊 Fundamentals Snapshot
- India: Crop arrivals are seasonally low, supporting prices. Flour mills face higher procurement costs, likely translating to price stickiness for end-users.
- Ukraine/EU: Recent offers from Ukraine (FCA Kyiv/Odesa: €0.24–0.25/kg) and France (FOB Paris: €0.28/kg) indicate stabilized farmgate prices amid export focus.
- US: CBOT futures firmness reflects stable export outlook, though weather-related concerns loom for spring wheat regions.
☁️ Weather Outlook & Impact
- India: Forecasts point to hot and dry conditions in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, potentially shortening wheat arrivals and keeping prices firm in the short term.
- Black Sea (Ukraine/Russia): Wetter-than-normal conditions could aid late-stage crop development, but excess moisture risks exist.
- US Plains: Mild temperatures with patchy rains support yield stability; however, upcoming heatwaves could introduce further volatility.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Prod. (Mt) | 2024/25 Stocks (Mt) | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 112.0 | 27.5 | +1.0 |
| Russia | 89.0 | 16.0 | -2.5 |
| EU-27 | 132.5 | 10.2 | +0.2 |
| USA | 48.5 | 16.5 | +0.6 |
| Ukraine | 23.5 | 3.2 | +1.3 |
| China | 137.0 | 139.8 | +2.8 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term price stability expected at higher levels in Indian mandis; millers should secure inventories early to avoid further price spikes.
- Exporters advised to monitor Black Sea logistics and EU weather updates; tighten hedges for nearby shipments.
- End users should consider forward bookings as bulk buying could trigger further upward momentum domestically.
- Futures market participants may explore range-bound trading strategies, given moderate speculative interest and balanced fundamentals.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Region | Last Close | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Currency | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT (US) | $6.47/bu | $6.50 | $6.53 | $6.50 | USD | Stable/Bullish |
| Euronext (Paris) | €230.25/t | €231.00 | €231.50 | €231.25 | EUR | Stable/Firm |
| India Mandsaur | $39.18/q | $39.20 | $39.22 | $39.18 | USD | High Sideways |
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