Wheat Market Update: Competitive Pressures and Weather Risks Shape Summer 2025 Trading

The global wheat market continues to oscillate between bullish recovery and renewed price pressure as both supply-side and geopolitical dynamics jostle for influence. After an initial rally driven by escalations in the Middle East, traders are again squarely focused on harvest prospects and exports. Key demand pulses arise from recent wheat tenders by Algeria and Tunisia, confirming an uptick in buying interest ahead of the 2025/26 marketing season. However, persistent competition from the Black Sea—particularly with Russia’s harvest now underway and Romania and Bulgaria expecting bumper crops—remains a dominant force.

The resultant downward pressure on FOB prices out of Russia, Ukraine, and Western Europe is notable, with Russian 12.5% wheat falling $3/t to $222/t and MATIF Euronext front month at €200.25/t after slipping €2.50. On the demand side, USDA weekly export data revealed a 20% week-on-week rise, albeit still below the prior year’s pace, underscoring the uneven and price-sensitive recovery in global trade. Additionally, crop progress in the US remains sluggish, with only 10% of winter wheat harvested—behind both average and trade expectations—and winter crop condition ratings deteriorating, which briefly buoyed futures overnight. With volatile weather patterns forecast for key producing regions and global inventories remaining well-supplied, the coming weeks promise heightened volatility and strategic recalibration for market participants.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Sep 25	€200.25/t	−€2.50	EUR	Bearish short-term, cautious medium-term
CBOT	Jul 25	536.5¢/bu	−7.25¢	USD	Volatile, moderate downside pressure
ICE (UK feed wheat)	Jul 25	£159.35/t	+£2.80	GBP	Firm, export driven

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Algeria and Tunisia have returned to the market, confirming demand for new-crop shipment, but Black Sea origins remain lowest-cost suppliers.
• USDA reported US wheat exports at 388,752t, up 20% week-on-week but down 5.5% versus last year. Major buyers: Nigeria, Philippines, Thailand.
• Russia’s 12.5% wheat (FOB) slipped to $222/t (−$3); SovEcon offers for new crop $225–229/t—market well-supplied.
• Romania and Bulgaria project record harvests, more than offsetting Ukraine’s war-induced losses.
• US winter wheat harvest progress (10%) lags seasonal average (16%), reflecting delays and field-level variability.

📊 Fundamentals

• US crop ratings: 52% good/excellent for winter wheat (−2% w/w), 57% good/excellent for spring wheat (+4%).
• Speculative positioning remains net short, with recent weather rallies prompting short covering but not yet a full bullish reversal.
• Global wheat stocks are ample; high carry reduces panic buying on global exchanges.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• US Plains/Midwest: Forecasts show persistent heat and spotty rainfall. Short-term dryness could stress late-maturing winter wheat, slow harvest, and threaten spring wheat emergence. Wetter outlook in parts of Minnesota and North Dakota may offer partial relief to spring wheat regions.
• Black Sea (Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria): Mostly stable conditions for harvest, beneficial for yield maximisation. Local showers possible but not likely to disrupt progress.
• Western Europe (France, Germany): Variable weather continues, with bouts of heavy rain improving soil moisture but delaying harvest operations and raising disease pressure risks.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	Production Estimate (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)
Russia	~89	~20
EU-27	~132	~11
Ukraine	20.5	~2
US	49	17
Canada	31	4
China	137	134
India	110	~22

📌 Latest Physical Market Offers (EUR, FOB)

Origin	Type/Quality	Price (EUR/t)	Update Date
US (CBOT, protein min. 11.50%)	98%, FOB Washington DC	€0.23	2025-06-12
France (protein min. 11.0%)	98%, FOB Paris	€0.27	2025-06-12
Ukraine (protein min. 11.0%)	98%, FOB Odesa	€0.20	2025-06-12

📆 Trading Outlook

• Monitor short-covering rallies prompted by weather risks, especially in US and Black Sea regions.
• Expect continued pressure from Black Sea offers; Romania, Bulgaria, and Russia will dominate export tenders.
• Pay attention to USDA crop ratings and harvest progress—further deterioration or delays could quickly shift sentiment.
• For physical buyers: Consider short-term coverage while prices are capped by ample new-crop supply; longer-term needs could benefit from seasonal lows, but weather tail risks persist.
• For sellers: Hedge new-crop supply; aggressive forward sales may be warranted as post-harvest competition intensifies.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	3-Day Price Forecast	Direction
Euronext (Sep 25)	€198–202/t	Range bound, slight downside bias
CBOT (Jul 25)	527–545¢/bu	Volatile, watch for weather-induced bounces
ICE UK (Jul 25)	£158–161/t	Steady, firm underlying demand