Wheat Market Update: French Crop Ratings Improve Amid Dry Spell, Global Prices Steady

The wheat market is currently navigating an intersection of improving French crop conditions, persistent dryness in key EU regions, and stable but cautious global trading sentiment. Recent data from FranceAgrimer indicates a notable rebound in the rating of French soft wheat, with good-to-excellent conditions rising to 70% for the week ending June 9, up from 69% the previous week and significantly ahead of last year’s 62%. This rebound comes despite ongoing dryness in northern France, which has pressured spring barley and now threatens wheat yield prospects if conditions persist. Globally, wheat prices remain steady on major exchanges, with only slight fluctuations seen both at Euronext and CBOT. Meanwhile, Ukrainian and US FOB prices continue to indicate a stable supply environment despite region-specific weather and geopolitical headlines.

The market remains attentive: short-term forecasts show the potential end of the dry phase in France at June’s close, while steady maize and barley outlooks keep complex dynamics in play for livestock feed markets and broader grains complex sentiment. Traders continue to eye weekly USDA reports and speculative positioning for further cues, especially as the Northern Hemisphere crop development season approaches a critical stage. All in all, market participants should monitor weather updates in Western and Eastern Europe, as well as global demand signals out of key importers such as Egypt and China, for the next decisional drivers.

📈 Prices: Latest Wheat Market Close

Origin	Exchange/Location	Protein Min.	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Date	Change	Sentiment
US	CBOT, Washington D.C.	11,50%	0.23	0.24	2025-06-12	-0.01	Neutral/Soft
FR	Euronext, Paris	11,00%	0.27	0.28	2025-06-12	-0.01	Slightly Bearish
UA	FOB Odesa	11,00%	0.20	0.20	2025-06-12	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• French soft wheat ratings improve to 70% good/excellent vs. 62% last year, showing resilience despite dryness.
• Spring barley conditions weakened for the fourth consecutive week; maize plantings complete at strong 85% good/excellent.
• Ukraine and US FOB wheat prices remain stable; Euronext wheat down modestly on profit-taking and better EU crop sentiment.
• Global import demand from top buyers (Egypt, China) remains moderate; Russian export offers exert pressure on international prices.
• USDA weekly crop progress: Market eyes US Plains and Midwest yield updates; Russian and Ukrainian harvest expectation steady for now.

📊 Fundamentals

Country/Region	2025E Production (mln t)	2025E Ending Stocks (mln t)	YoY Change (%)	Current Rating (% Good/Excellent)
France	34	3.5	+6%	70
Ukraine	21	1.9	0%	65
US	51	15	+1%	64 (Winter)
Russia	87	18	-2%	n.a.
China	137	135	+2%	n.a.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• France: Dry phase persists, especially in the north. Rains are forecast for late June, which may support grain fill and arrest further crop decline.
• US Plains/Midwest: Near-normal rainfall; some localized dryness. No widespread stress reported.
• Black Sea (Ukraine & south Russia): Mild weather; recent rains support wheat heading and grain formation.
• China: Stable; no significant weather disruptions reported.

Weather Risk Assessment:

• Key risk for French and Western EU wheat remains any extension of the current dry phase into July.
• Global wheat production outlook stable but sensitive to July weather developments in EU and Black Sea.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor further rains in France—late June precipitation is essential for yield preservation.
• Watch for updated USDA and FranceAgrimer ratings in the coming week; a downgrade could turn sentiment bullish rapidly.
• Consider covering short positions or hedging physical exposure if the dry stretch in France extends beyond current forecasts.
• Black Sea region exports (especially Russia) remain a key competitor; track any escalation in political or logistical headlines.
• Demand out of North Africa, China, and Southeast Asia remains a swing factor—follow tender activity closely.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Bias
CBOT (US)	0.23	0.22-0.24	Neutral
Euronext (FR)	0.27	0.26-0.28	Slightly Bullish
Odesa (UA)	0.20	0.19-0.21	Stable