Wheat Market Update: Global Pressures and Weather Trends Shape Mid-July Outlook

The wheat market starts the second half of July navigating a web of bearish momentum, geopolitical frictions, and shifting harvest expectations across key regions. Euronext wheat futures saw a pronounced slump, with the front-month September contract tumbling by €3.75 to €197.25 per ton—the steepest drop among leading contracts. Subdued trading volumes fueled the pessimistic undertone at Euronext amid a French holiday, ongoing trade disputes with the US, and the rapid advance of the European harvest. Meanwhile, CBOT Soft Red Winter Wheat futures for September slipped by 3.5 cents to 541.5 cents per bushel, following the global trend of caution and supply optimism across the Northern Hemisphere.

Major international events provide little respite. The Algerian wheat import tender, which closes today, is expected to favour Black Sea origins, as slow Russian harvesting and low yields have nudged Russian FOB export values higher, now quoted at $229/t, up $4 week-over-week. Underneath the veneer of firmer Black Sea values, sluggish global demand and export shipments from both Russia and the US weigh on overall sentiment. Latest USDA inspection data reveal a 16% weekly decline in US wheat exports, echoing a broader downtrend versus last year, despite crop conditions for US spring wheat improving by 4 percentage points to 54% good/excellent, just as the winter wheat harvest is slightly behind multi-year averages. The market’s path forward will be determined by the tug-of-war between harvest progress, macroeconomic headwinds, speculative flows, and looming weather risks in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices – Wheat Futures & Physical Market Benchmarks

Euronext (MATIF) Wheat

Contract	Last Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Sep 25	197.25	-3.75	Bearish
Dec 25	207.75	-3.00*	Bearish
Mar 26	215.50	-2.50*	Bearish

*Approximate weekly moves based on front-month direction

CBOT SRW Wheat

Contract	Last Price (US-Cent/bu)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Sep 25	543.00	-3.50	Bearish
Dec 25	564.00	-3.25	Bearish
Mar 26	582.00	-2.50	Bearish

Current Physical Export Offers

Origin	Location	Protein	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)
UA	Odesa	min. 9.50%	FCA	0.23
UA	Kyiv	min. 9.50%	FCA	0.22
UA	Odesa	min. 11.50%	FCA	0.24

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Northern Hemisphere Harvests: EU and US harvests are progressing, with early yield data in Russia below average in the South, tightening some Black Sea supply.
• Export Demand: Importers like Algeria remain active but are leveraging multi-origin tenders. USDA weekly export inspections for US wheat fell 16% week-on-week, with year-to-date exports now 3% below last year. Main destinations were Mexico (162,639 t), the Philippines (65,999 t), and South Korea (36,121 t).
• Speculative Flows: CFTC data (as of last week) continue to show hedge funds maintaining net short positions in CBOT wheat, amplifying volatility.
• Trade Policy: Persistent US-EU trade friction injects uncertainty into flows, while Russian export policy remains supportive due to state control and price monitoring.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Structure

• US Winter Wheat: 63% harvested, one point below five-year average (USDA “Crop Progress”), spring wheat at 54% good/excellent (+4 pts).
• Black Sea: Russian wheat FOB August offers rose to $228–230/t on a slow pace and weaker southern yields, though export pace showed a slight uptick week-on-week.
• EU: Harvest running ahead of schedule in France, good yield expectations in most regions, but sluggish export demand persists.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• US Plains: Mild, drier weather aids harvest, but isolated storms could cause delays in the northern states; generally favourable for yield preservation.
• Black Sea: Southern Russia faces ongoing dryness and heat risk—likely to cap yield potential, especially in early fields; Central and Volga regions await more significant rain.
• EU: Favourable conditions persist across Spain, France, and Germany, supporting high output; however, any excessive rainfall during harvest may cause local lodging or quality loss.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Forecast Production (Mt)	2024/25 Forecast Ending Stocks (Mt)
Russia	82	14.5
EU	131	14.0
US	51.5	15.2
Ukraine	22	2.8
China	135	137.5
India	112	9.0

Source: USDA, SovEcon, IKAR, July 2025 estimates

📆 Trading Outlook – Actionable Insights

• Short-term sentiment remains bearish to neutral as large harvests and slow demand weigh on prices across both Matif and CBOT wheat.
• Watch for potential reversal signs: Black Sea weather risks, a positive surprise in Algerian tender pricing, or increased speculative short-covering could spark rallies.
• Buyers: Consider waiting for further weakness before locking in coverage for Q3 2025, unless weather risk or a trade policy shift.
• Sellers: Hedge portions of the new crop as harvest advances, especially if weather stabilises and no major export disruptions occur.
• Monitor Russian port and yield data closely—persistent challenges here could underpin prices in August.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Euronext (Sept 25): €194–198/t (sideways to slightly weaker)
• CBOT (Sept 25): 535–545 c/bu (rangebound as speculative shorts balance harvest selling)
• Black Sea FOB 12.5%: $227–230/t (firm, limited upside unless further crop loss news)