Wheat Market Update: Regional Strength Meets Global Pressure as Monsoon Disruptions and Export Competition Dominate Trends

The global wheat market is facing contrasting trends, with regional price recoveries in India amid heavy rains and tightening arrivals, while international benchmarks come under downward pressure from surging global supplies and intensified export competition. This week, Indian mandis, especially in Gujarat, saw wheat prices rebound by $2.40 to $3.10 per ton as local demand gained momentum following rainfall-related supply constraints. Across Rajkot, Surat, Gondal, and Jamnagar, prices clustered in the $275–$279/ton range, supported by slower arrivals and moderate-to-firm trading interest. Meanwhile, other top-producing states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan exhibited similar price stability, highlighting underlying market resilience domestically despite recent volatility.

In sharp contrast, benchmark Chicago wheat futures tumbled nearly $3 to close at $218.80/ton, reflecting ample global inventories, cheaper exports from Black Sea origins, and limited government tenders. While local procurement and dynamic weather patterns are key drivers for India, participants worldwide are watching USDA reports, planting updates, and shifting policy signals to gauge the near-term trajectory. In the background, Ukraine’s export offers in FCA and FOB markets remained steady, while select EU origins quoted modestly higher. As uncertainty mounts—with weather forecasts pivotal for the coming weeks—the wheat market is expected to remain range-bound but reactive, requiring traders and stakeholders to monitor both domestic developments and international price movements closely.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Region	Type/Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Rajkot Mandi (IN)	Physical, spot	$275.60–$278.40/ton	+ $2.40–$3.10	Recovery, firm
Surat Mandi (IN)	Physical, spot	$276.50–$279.30/ton	+ $2.40–$3.10	Recovery, steady
Chicago (CBOT)	Front-month	$218.80/ton	– $2.94	Bearish
Kyiv (UA, FCA)	11.5% protein	€0.24/kg	Unchanged	Stable
Odesa (UA, FCA)	11.5% protein	€0.25/kg	Unchanged	Stable
FOB Paris (FR)	11.0% protein	€0.28/kg	Unchanged	Mildly firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Arrivals in Gujarat slowed due to monsoon rains; local demand increased and mandi prices saw a slight bounce.
• Global: Large wheat inventories in the US, EU, and Black Sea regions; increased competition among exporters (notably Russia and Ukraine) is putting downward pressure on world prices.
• Government Tenders: Limited activity is further dampening global trade sentiment, though the outlook could change rapidly with new procurement rounds.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Outlook: Recent updates indicate strong crop prospects in North America and Russia, with Australia’s output still weather-dependent.
• Crop Acreage: Major exporting countries have maintained or marginally increased wheat acreage, supporting high output expectations.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds have held or increased short positions on CBOT, reinforcing the bearish near-term trend globally.

Country/Region	2024 Prod. (est. MMT)	End Stocks (MMT)
USA	51.7	20.5
Russia	91.0	20.0
EU	134.0	16.0
India	111.0	18.0
Ukraine	22.5	4.0

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: Heavy rainfall in Gujarat continues, hampering harvest arrivals; further precipitation could tighten supply and support prices locally.
• Black Sea Region: Favorable conditions overall but watch for episodic dryness in southern Russia/Ukraine; could affect late fills.
• US Midwest: Mild, mostly benign forecast; harvest progress on track for winter wheat, but isolated storms could delay the tail-end of harvest.
• EU (France, Germany): Mixed outlook – recent rain has aided some late crops but may complicate harvest operations in saturated areas.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Near-term Indian wheat prices expected to remain stable-to-firm on continued monsoon disruptions and robust local buying.
• CBOT and global benchmarks likely range-bound, with risk skewed lower unless weather issues materialize in major exporting regions.
• Monitor fresh government tenders and changes in export policies, especially in India and the Black Sea region.
• Hedge downstream exposure if reliant on imported wheat—spot market volatility may increase on any supply-side surprises.
• Watch speculative flows; increased short-covering could trigger price rebounds if global headlines turn supportive.

📅 3-Day Price Forecast (Regional)

Market	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Outlook
Rajkot (IN)	$277/ton	$277–$280/ton	Slightly higher/steady
Chicago (CBOT)	$218.8/ton	$216–$220/ton	Steady to weak
Odesa (UA, FCA)	€0.25/kg	€0.25–€0.26/kg	Slightly firmer
Paris (FR, FOB)	€0.28/kg	€0.28/kg	Stable