Wheat Market Update: Subdued Recovery Amid Slow Demand & Competitive Global Stocks

The wheat market finds itself treading water, with only modest price improvements after sharp declines earlier in the month. While some optimism had brewed on anecdotal evidence of $3–$10 per ton recovery, the overall market sentiment continues to be marked by caution. Trade volumes remain thin, largely due to a persistent lack of robust demand from buyers, many of whom seem to be waiting for clearer signals from both local government procurement policies and the conclusion of the current arrival season.

Domestically, wheat prices in Ahmedabad hovered around $392.80 per ton, with premium quality slightly higher at $399.20 per ton. Across major marketing hubs, the spread between mill, average, good, and premium wheat underscores the market’s bifurcation: mill quality fetches $351.80–$355.20 per ton, while premium lots top out between $411.60 and $417.80 per ton. These figures reflect not just a marginal uptick from recent lows, but also traders’ reluctance to aggressively restock ahead of the upcoming festive season, when a demand revival is anticipated.

Globally, the wheat landscape remains competitive. International benchmark prices (including those from CBOT and Euronext) have swung on changing import appetites, but comfortable stock levels and the absence of acute supply fears have kept any upward momentum in check. Weather conditions and government policy will thus be decisive for the next big move.

📈 Prices

Market/Exchange	Type	Location	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Ahmedabad	Avg. Wheat	IN	$392.80/ton	+$3 to +$10	Weak/Flat
Ahmedabad	Premium Wheat	IN	$399.20/ton	Stable	Subdued
UA Odesa (FCA)	Prot. 11.5%	UA	€0.25/kg	Unchanged	Cautious
UA Kyiv (FCA)	Prot. 11.5%	UA	€0.24/kg	Unchanged	Cautious
CBOT	Prot. 11.5%, FOB	US	€0.21/kg	-0.02	Bearish
Euronext (Paris, FOB)	Prot. 11%	FR	€0.27/kg	-0.02	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Domestic: Arrival of new crop and cautious government procurement keep an upper cap on prices despite overall tight trade volumes.
• Demand: Trade remains light as buyers hesitate due to flat demand and hesitation linked to upcoming festive and harvest seasons.
• International: Global stock levels are comfortable, with no shortage pressures on major exporters like the US, Russia, and Ukraine.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Upcoming government procurement plans: Likely to establish a price floor for the next few months, influencing private trade activity.
• Harvest timing: Arrival of fresh supplies keeps price aspirations in check for sellers.
• Global trends: CBOT and Euronext price weakness reflects ample international stocks and cautious speculative positioning.
• USDA forecasts: Indicate comfortable stocks among leading exporters and importers, muting panic-buying or upward price risk.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Black Sea Region (Ukraine & Russia): Short-term weather is mild, with rains supporting soil moisture but increasing disease risk. Overall outlook is favorable for winter wheat planting.
• North America: Conditions remain stable with generally adequate precipitation for the fall wheat planting season across the US Midwest.
• Europe (France, Germany): Mixed rains forecast may delay late-season planting but improve soil conditions.

Overall, no major weather-related threats are expected in the next three days, which should help keep price volatility contained.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (est.)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (est.)
US	49.3 MMT	15.4 MMT
Russia	90.5 MMT	14.1 MMT
Ukraine	23.6 MMT	4.4 MMT
EU	132.0 MMT	11.6 MMT
China	137.7 MMT	104.6 MMT
India	112.0 MMT	16.4 MMT

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Sellers: Consider locking in supplies on short rallies—global supply cushion and light demand may keep prices range-bound in the near term.
• For Buyers: Wait for potential dips; larger procurement expected post-festive season.
• For Exporters: Monitor Black Sea and North American fundamentals, as regional weather shapes competitive offers.
• Panic buying is not recommended; the lack of acute global supply issues limits upward momentum.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Ahmedabad	$392.80/ton	$392–$395/ton	Stable/Flat
CBOT	€0.21/kg	€0.21–€0.22/kg	Sideways to Mildly Bullish
Euronext	€0.27/kg	€0.27–€0.28/kg	Flat/Stable
UA (Odesa/Kyiv)	€0.24–€0.25/kg	€0.24–€0.25/kg	Flat