Wheat Market Update: Tight Balance and Weather Uncertainties Support Prices

Global wheat markets continue to face a delicate supply-demand balance as we enter the second half of the 2025/26 marketing year. The latest USDA weekly export report brought no major surprises, with net sales for 2025/26 totalling 494,400 tons and falling within the expected range. Key buyers remain Mexico, Venezuela, South Africa, Japan, and Peru, reflecting geographically diverse import momentum. The International Grains Council (IGC) kept its global wheat output forecast steady at 808 million tons for 2025/26, up from last season’s 800 million tons. Yet, this falls short of projected global use, pegged at 814 million tons, indicating continued drawdown in stocks that could underpin international prices.

Regionally, Argentina’s wheat crop estimate was revised down by the Rosario Grain Exchange to 20 million tons, with dryness cited as a constraint. Canadian harvests are projected near last year’s levels, but timely rainfall will be critical to reach full potential after prolonged drought stress. European and Black Sea fundamentals are relatively stable but warrant monitoring given weather volatility. Amid these dynamics, wheat futures on both Euronext (MATIF) and CBOT have stabilised after recent increases, while feed wheat on ICE saw slight gains. Wheat offers from key origins remain firm, and physical prices reflect tightness, especially on higher protein parcels.

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📈 Wheat Prices Overview

Exchange	Contract Month	Last Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Sep 2025	202.50 EUR/t	0.00%	Neutral
CBOT	Sep 2025	545.25 US¢/bu	-0.18%	Cautious
ICE (Feed Wheat)	Nov 2025	179.95 GBP/t	+0.94%	Firm

📋 Physical Wheat Offers (Selected)

Origin	Description	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)
Ukraine	Wheat, min. 11.5% Protein	Odesa (FCA)	FCA	0.24
Ukraine	Wheat, min. 11.5% Protein	Kyiv (FCA)	FCA	0.23
Ukraine	Wheat, min. 9.5% Protein	Kyiv (FCA)	FCA	0.22

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Weekly Exports: Net wheat sales at 494,400 t (in line with expectations), led by Mexico and Venezuela.
• IGC World Production Forecast: 2025/26 seen at 808 mln t (+1% y/y), but below expected consumption (814 mln t), indicating stock drawdowns.
• Argentina: Rosario trims crop forecast to 20 mln t amid dryness, adding upside risk to prices if weather does not improve.
• Canada: Crop prospects hinge on timely rainfall after drought; output may match last year’s sizeable harvest pending favourable weather.
• Speculative Positioning: Market sentiment remains cautious with no strong speculative trend, reflecting mixed fundamentals and weather-related uncertainty.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Agronomic Update

• Canada: Recent reports from the “Ag in Motion” fair highlight the need for more rain; average to above-average yields are possible if precipitation improves in the next weeks.
• Argentina: Southern regions are suffering from below-normal rainfall; continued dryness could reduce further yield potential.
• Black Sea & EU: Mixed precipitation in Western and Central Europe; no major disruptions but closely watched for late-season disease or drought risks.

📊 Global Wheat Production & Stocks (2025/26)

Country/Region	Production (mln t)	Stock Change
World (IGC)	808	-6
Argentina	20	-0.7 (vs prev. est.)
Canada	~Same as 2024 (Estimate: 35-37)	Stable
EU + Black Sea	201-203	Minor
US	49	Neutral

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor forthcoming USDA and Statistics Canada crop forecasts for surprises, especially the August 28th StatsCan release.
• Upside risk in futures if weather setbacks materialise in Canada or Argentina; strategic purchases for short-term needs are recommended.
• Basis and physical prices are likely to remain supported on higher protein wheat due to ongoing tightness in global balance sheets.
• Opportunities may arise for sellers in the Black Sea and the EU to lock in forward sales on price rallies.
• Speculative accounts should stay nimble and monitor developments in weather and crop condition indices weekly.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Spot Price	3-Day Forecast Direction
Euronext (MATIF)	202.50 EUR/t	Stable to slightly firm
CBOT (Sep 25)	545.25 US¢/bu	Stable
Ukraine FCA (11.5% Pro)	0.24 EUR/kg	Steady
Feed Wheat ICE (Nov 25)	179.95 GBP/t	Firm

Market participants should be alert for political, transport or weather-induced disruptions that could move prices quickly in the short term. Monitor latest weather maps and supply chain updates to adjust positions accordingly.

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