Wheat Markets Show Signs of Recovery – Exports and Speculative Activity Drive Prices

Wheat Markets Show Signs of Recovery – Exports and Speculative Activity Drive Prices

Wheat prices showed resilience, with Euronext gaining momentum and CBOT experiencing mixed performance. Stronger U.S. export figures and reduced speculative pressure supported prices, while shifting global trade flows and policy changes continued to shape the market. Will the recovery hold, or is further volatility ahead?

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1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

Contract	Closing Price	Change	% Change
Euronext May 2025	€224.50/t	+€1.00	+0.4%
Euronext September 2025	€226.00/t	0.00	0.0%
CBOT May 2025	568.50 ct/bu (€191.59/t)	+11.50 ct	+2.1%
CBOT July 2025	582.00 ct/bu (€195.75/t)	+4.00 ct	+0.7%

Euronext wheat prices gained ground, while CBOT saw stronger movement driven by export data and fund activity.

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2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

Strong U.S. Wheat Exports Boost Market Confidence

USDA’s latest export inspections report showed a surge in wheat shipments:

• 482,658 tons were exported in the week ending March 13.
• More than double the previous week’s volume.
• 24.89% higher than the same period last year.

Robust export figures helped lift CBOT wheat futures, suggesting demand remains strong.

Speculative Investors Reduce Short Positions

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates a shift in speculative activity:

• Funds reduced their net short positions in CBOT wheat by 4,987 contracts, totalling 77,412 contracts as of March 11.

This suggests that investors are becoming less bearish on wheat, providing additional price support.

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Show Decline

Ukraine’s agricultural ministry reported lower grain exports this season:

• 31.02 million tons exported so far in 2024/25, down 5.8% from last year.
• Wheat exports totaled 12.51 million tons, 4.5% lower year-on-year.

Lower Ukrainian exports could tighten global wheat supplies in the coming months.

EU Proposes Additional Tariffs on Russian & Belarusian Agricultural Products

The European Commission has proposed new tariffs on Russian and Belarusian agricultural imports, including wheat and nitrogen-based fertilizers:

• Aimed at reducing Russian export revenue and disrupting trade flows.
• Tariffs would be phased in over three years.
• Russia, the world’s largest fertilizer exporter, could face higher production costs, indirectly impacting global wheat prices.

If approved, these measures could alter global wheat trade and cost structures for European producers.

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3. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days: March 20 – March 22, 2025)

Expected Price Ranges for the Next 3 Trading Days:

Contract	Price Forecast
Euronext May 2025	€223 – €228/t
Euronext September 2025	€225 – €230/t
CBOT May 2025	565 – 575 ct/bu (€190 – €194/t)

The combination of improved exports and lower speculative pressure could support prices, but market uncertainty remains high.

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4. 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

USA (Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma – Winter Wheat Belt)

Current: Improving soil moisture, no frost risks.
Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• Mild temperatures are expected to continue.
• Additional rainfall could further support wheat growth.

Russia & Ukraine (Black Sea Region)

Current: Winter wheat conditions are stable, but soil moisture remains a concern.
Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• Warmer conditions are expected, with no significant weather threats.
• Limited precipitation could affect spring planting in key regions.

Weather conditions remain a key factor for the wheat market’s direction.

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5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

Global Wheat Ending Stocks (2021–2025)

Season	Global Stocks (Mio. t)	Change
2021/22	311.5	–
2022/23	301.0	-10.5 Mio. t
2023/24	295.8	-5.2 Mio. t
2024/25	290.3	-5.5 Mio. t

Wheat Production Forecast 2024/25

Country	2023/24 (Mio. t)	2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t)	Change
Australia	29.0	34.1	+17.6 %
USA	385	384	-0.3 %
Russia	91	87	-4.4 %
EU	126	128	+1.6 %

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6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

Key Takeaways:
Wheat markets rebounded as exports and investor sentiment improved.
Lower Ukrainian exports and trade policy shifts could impact supply.
New EU tariffs on Russian agriculture could alter global trade flows.
Weather risks remain, particularly in Eastern Europe and Russia.

Strategic Recommendations:
Producers: Monitor export trends and potential policy changes in Russia & the EU.
Buyers: Look for short-term opportunities before further supply disruptions occur.
Traders: Expect continued volatility, driven by policy changes, speculative positioning, and weather developments.

Markets remain highly sensitive to global trade policies, geopolitical events, and export demand.