USDA’s Acreage Forecast Indicates Decrease in Corn and Wheat Plantings
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has unveiled its initial acreage forecast for 2024, revealing anticipated reductions in corn and wheat plantings compared to the previous year. Conversely, soybean acreage is poised to expand due to its comparative profitability, despite experiencing multi-year lows in prices.
Crop |
Projected Acreage (Million Acres) |
Analysts’ Estimate (Million Acres) |
| Corn | 91.0 | 91.6 |
| Wheat | 47.0 | – |
| Soybean | 87.5 | 86.7 |
Despite the USDA’s projection slightly trailing analysts’ forecasts, corn and wheat prices continue to decline, surpassing soybean price drops.
Market Response and Price Trends
On the Chicago Stock Exchange, March corn futures plummeted by another 1.5% to $164.5/t, marking a 3% decline over two days. In contrast, soybeans experienced a milder decrease of 0.7% to $427.1/t, down 2.1% over two days.
March U.S. wheat futures also faced downward pressure despite the projected reduction in planted acreage:
- Soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago dropped by 3.3% to $208.3/t
- Hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City declined by 2.1% to $211.6/t
- Hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis decreased by 0.7% to $241.8/t
Factors Influencing Prices
The decline in prices is attributed to several factors, including favorable weather conditions and the outlook for soybean and corn harvests in South America. Additionally, weak export sales from the United States contribute to the pressure on prices.
According to StoneX, recent transactions include South Korea’s purchase of 68,000 tonnes of South American or South African corn for early June delivery at $238/t C&F, and Algeria’s acquisition of 120,000 tonnes at $230/t C&F.
Despite the projected reduction in U.S. planted acreage, wheat prices continue to falter amidst broader market dynamics and global trade patterns.