📜 Wheat Prices Decline Despite Supply Concerns – Trade & Weather in Focus 📜

Wheat markets continued to decline, despite concerns over dry conditions in key growing regions and shifting trade flows. Euronext futures extended their losses, while CBOT wheat saw a mixed performance. Meanwhile, China is increasing wheat imports from Russia, and French crop conditions remain below historical averages. Will these factors reverse the recent downtrend?

---

📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 % Change
Euronext May 2025	€223.50/t	-€2.50	-1.1%
Euronext September 2025	€226.00/t	-€2.50	-1.1%
CBOT May 2025	557.00 ct/bu (€187.95/t)	-5.50 ct	-1.0%
CBOT July 2025	571.00 ct/bu (€192.70/t)	+2.50 ct	+0.44%

📌 Weaker prices at Euronext contrast with mixed movements in CBOT futures, where some contracts posted gains despite supply concerns.

---

🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📉 Dry Conditions in Southern Russia & Black Sea Region

📊 Limited precipitation is expected across key wheat-growing regions ahead of spring planting:

• Low soil moisture in southern Russia could impact summer wheat planting and reduce future yields.
• Eastern Europe remains dry, with Ukraine facing a potential moisture deficit in key production areas.

📌 Weather risks could support prices, but markets remain focused on short-term demand signals.

🔹 📉 French Wheat Conditions Remain Weak

📊 French soft wheat crop ratings stabilized but remain among the lowest in five years:

• 74% of soft wheat rated “good” or “excellent” as of March 10.
• This is unchanged from last week but remains historically low, raising concerns over potential yield reductions.

📌 Last year’s excessive rainfall led to France’s smallest wheat crop since the 1980s. Current conditions are slightly better but still concerning.

🔹 📈 Spring Barley Planting Progress in France

📊 French spring barley planting is progressing at an accelerated pace:

• 92% completion as of March 10, well ahead of the 5-year average of 70%.

📌 A faster planting pace could improve French barley supply in the upcoming season.

🔹 📈 China Expanding Wheat Imports from Russia

📊 China’s wheat imports from Russia are rising rapidly:

• Russia has already exported 275,000 tons of wheat to China this season, surpassing U.S. exports (139,000 tons).
• China may allow Russian winter wheat imports, further strengthening trade ties between the two nations.

📌 Stronger Russia-China trade links could impact global wheat flows and reduce demand for U.S. wheat.

🔹 📈 Ukraine-Turkey Agricultural Cooperation Expanding

📊 Ukraine and Turkey are strengthening trade ties in the agricultural sector:

• While the focus is currently on other agricultural products, future wheat export deals remain a possibility.

📌 New trade partnerships could influence global wheat supply chains.

---

🔮 3. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days: March 19 – March 21, 2025)

📉 Expected Price Ranges for the Next 3 Trading Days:

📅 Contract	🔮 Price Forecast
Euronext May 2025	€221 – €226/t
Euronext September 2025	€224 – €229/t
CBOT May 2025	555 – 565 ct/bu (€186 – €191/t)

📌 If dry conditions in Russia worsen, a slight rebound is possible, but short-term demand remains weak.

---

⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA (Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma – Winter Wheat Belt)

📍 Current: Moderate temperatures, some areas receiving rain.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ Mild conditions are expected to persist.
• 🌧️ Rainfall is expected to ease dryness concerns in some regions.

🇷🇺 Russia & 🇺🇦 Ukraine (Black Sea Region)

📍 Current: Winter wheat conditions are stable, but low moisture remains a concern.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ No significant cold spells are expected.
• 🌧️ Below-average rainfall could add stress to spring wheat planting.

📌 Global wheat markets remain highly sensitive to weather patterns.

---

📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

📍 Global Wheat Ending Stocks (2021–2025)

📅 Season	🌎 Global Stocks (Mio. t)	📉 Change
2021/22	311.5	–
2022/23	301.0	-10.5 Mio. t
2023/24	295.8	-5.2 Mio. t
2024/25	290.3	-5.5 Mio. t

📍 Wheat Production Forecast 2024/25

🌍 Country	📅 2023/24 (Mio. t)	📅 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t)	📉 Change
🇦🇺 Australia	29.0	34.1	+17.6 %
🇺🇸 USA	385	384	-0.3 %
🇷🇺 Russia	91	87	-4.4 %
🇪🇺 EU	126	128	+1.6 %

---

📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Euronext wheat prices declined further, while CBOT showed mixed movement.
✅ Dry conditions in Russia and the Black Sea region could impact spring planting.
✅ French wheat conditions remain historically weak, raising concerns about yield potential.
✅ China is expanding wheat imports from Russia, shifting global trade flows.

📌 Strategic Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Monitor weather forecasts in key growing regions before making selling decisions.
🔹 Buyers: Watch for potential price rebounds if weather conditions worsen.
🔹 Traders: Expect continued price volatility, with geopolitical risks and supply concerns shaping market trends.

📍 Markets remain highly sensitive to global trade policies, weather conditions, and export demand shifts.