Wheat Prices Fall to Multi-Month Lows – Black Sea Shipping Deal Weighs on Sentiment
Wheat futures continued their decline, with the Euronext front-month contract hitting its lowest level since November. Progress in Black Sea trade negotiations, improving weather, and cautious export trends kept pressure on the market. Will upcoming USDA data or a shift in weather sentiment trigger a reversal?
1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends
 Contract |
 Closing Price |
 Change |
% Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext May 2025 | €220.25/t | -€2.00 | -0.9% |
| CBOT May 2025 | 542.50 ct/bu (€185.90/t) | -5.00 ct | -0.91% |
The Euronext May contract reached its lowest close since late November 2024.
2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
Progress on Black Sea Export Talks
Russia and Ukraine agreed to ensure safe shipping in the Black Sea, mirroring the previous grain corridor initiative:
- No attacks on ports or energy infrastructure
- Freight and insurance costs are likely to fall, improving the export competitiveness of Russian and Ukrainian wheat
The market is pricing improved supply reliability from the Black Sea region.
Wetter Conditions Improve Across Eastern Europe
Rainfall expected in key wheat-producing regions:
- Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania all forecast above-normal precipitation
- Soil moisture expected to improve for spring planting
Rain forecasts are easing weather-related risk premiums.
SovEcon Cuts Russia’s 2024/25 Export Forecast
New projections:
- 40.7 million tons (–1.5 million vs. prior estimate)
- Well below USDA’s 45 million t forecast and last year’s 55.5 million t
- 2025/26 forecast raised slightly to 39.1 million tons
Despite the revision, the market shows little reaction – suggesting it was already priced in.
EU Wheat Exports Improve Slightly – Still Below Average
As of March 24, 2025:
- EU soft wheat exports: 15.46 million t (–35% YoY)
- +309,000 t from the previous week
- Germany: 1.84 million t (+90,000 t WoW)
A mild rebound, but far below last year’s pace.
3. Price Forecast (March 26–28, 2025)
| Contract |
Expected Price Range |
|---|---|
| Euronext May 2025 | €218 – €222/t |
| CBOT May 2025 | 540 – 550 ct/bu (€184 – €188/t) |
Markets may remain under pressure unless weather risks return or export activity surprises to the upside.
4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions
Russia, 
Ukraine, 
Poland – Eastern Europe / Black Sea
Current: Soil moisture is low but improving
Outlook:
Rain expected in all major growing regions
Mild spring, no frost risks
USA – Kansas, Great Plains (Winter Wheat)
Current: Soil moisture remains uneven
Outlook:
- Spotty rain, but not enough for full recovery
- Spring temperatures favourable for growth
Weather risks are currently declining, reducing price support.
5. Long-Term Supply Outlook (SovEcon & EU Commission)
| Season |
 Russia Wheat Exports (Mio t) |
Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 55.5 | – |
| 2024/25 (SovEcon) | 40.7 | –1.5 |
| 2025/26 (SovEcon) | 39.1 | +0.2 |
| EU Soft Wheat Exports |
Since July 1, 2024 |
Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| EU Total | 15.46 million t | +309,000 t |
| Germany | 1.84 million t | +90,000 t |
6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
Key Takeaways:
Prices fell to multi-month lows on improving Black Sea logistics and weather forecasts
Russia and Ukraine offer cheaper and now more reliable grain
EU and U.S. exports show minor recovery but remain well below average
Weather conditions now favour a stable spring planting season
Strategic Recommendations:
Producers: Consider holding positions until after USDA’s March 31 reports
Buyers: Monitor Russian and Ukrainian logistics – short-term discounts possible
Traders: Be ready for sharp price moves if weather or diplomacy shifts
Markets remain extremely sensitive to weather and geopolitical developments.
