Wheat Prices Mixed – Euronext Falls, CBoT Wheat Rallies Amid Trade Optimism

Wheat futures diverged on Wednesday, with Euronext wheat extending losses, while CBoT wheat rebounded as market sentiment improved. The May contract on Euronext dropped by €0.50 to €223/t, while CBOT May wheat surged by 11.5 cents to 548.25 ct/bu (€203/t), leading the rally in Soft Red Winter wheat. A stronger euro and speculative pressure continue to weigh on Euronext, while U.S. trade tensions eased slightly, lifting sentiment at CBOT.

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1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

Contract	Closing Price	Change	% Change
Euronext May 2025	€223.00/t	-€0.50	-0.2%
Euronext September 2025	€224.25/t	-€0.50	-0.2%
CBOT May 2025	548.25 ct/bu (€203/t)	+11.50 ct	+2.1%
CBOT July 2025	562.75 ct/bu (€208/t)	+6.25 ct	+1.18%

CBOT wheat rebounded strongly, while Euronext continued its downward trend due to a strong euro and weak investor sentiment.

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2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

CBoT Wheat Rallies on Trade Optimism

Market sentiment improved at CBOT, with traders reacting positively to a slight de-escalation in U.S. trade tensions:

• U.S. delayed auto tariffs on Canada & Mexico by one month, offering a temporary relief to agricultural markets.
• President Trump signaled openness to exempting more products from tariffs, which eased fears of further disruptions in agricultural exports.

Despite this, analysts still warn that trade conflicts may negatively impact global grain demand in the long term.

Euronext Weighed Down by a Strong Euro & Speculative Selling

European wheat remains under pressure due to:

• A stronger euro, which gained nearly 3 cents against the U.S. dollar since last Friday.
• Short-selling by financial investors, who expanded their net short positions from 39,927 to 103,175 contracts in the latest Euronext data.
• Increased sales of German wheat to Morocco, as lower prices boost export competitiveness.

Export demand may improve, but speculative pressure is keeping prices low.

Russian Wheat Production Update

Russia’s top meteorologist, Roman Vilfand, stated that winter wheat is in better condition than expected.

• 87% of winter crops were rated “good” or “satisfactory”, up from 82% in January.
• Low precipitation remains a concern, particularly in southern regions.

Better-than-expected Russian crop conditions could keep global wheat supplies ample.

USDA Export Report Expectations

USDA export sales data for the week ending February 27 is set for release today:

• Expected to show 225,000 to 450,000 tons for the 2024/25 season.
• Traders will be watching closely for signs of improving U.S. wheat demand.

Better-than-expected export data could fuel further CBOT price gains.

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3. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days: March 8 – March 10, 2025)

Expected Price Ranges for the Next 3 Trading Days:

Contract	Price Forecast
Euronext May 2025	€220 – €225/t
Euronext September 2025	€222 – €227/t
CBOT May 2025	545 – 555 ct/bu (€201 – €205/t)

If the U.S. export report exceeds expectations, CBOT could continue its recovery.

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4. 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

USA (Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma – Winter Wheat Belt)

Current: Moderate improvement in crop conditions, no frost threats.
Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• Mild temperatures, good moisture conditions expected.
• Some dryness risk in the Southern Plains but no immediate concern.

Russia & Ukraine (Black Sea Region)

Current: Winter wheat conditions improved, but dry weather persists.
Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• Stable temperatures, no extreme frost expected.
• Precipitation remains below normal, raising concerns for spring growth.

Black Sea region remains a critical factor for global wheat supply dynamics.

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5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

Global Wheat Ending Stocks (2021–2025)

Season	Global Stocks (Mio. t)	Change
2021/22	311.5	–
2022/23	301.0	-10.5 Mio. t
2023/24	295.8	-5.2 Mio. t
2024/25	290.3	-5.5 Mio. t

Wheat Production Forecast 2024/25

Country	2023/24 (Mio. t)	2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t)	Change
USA	385	384	-0.3 %
Russia	91	87	-4.4 %
EU	126	128	+1.6 %

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6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

Key Takeaways:
CBOT wheat rebounded strongly as trade optimism lifted sentiment.
Euronext wheat remains under pressure due to speculative selling and a strong euro.
Russian wheat conditions are better than expected, reducing global supply concerns.
Export demand needs to improve to sustain higher prices.

Strategic Recommendations:
Producers: Monitor export developments before making major sales.
Buyers: Consider purchasing opportunities, as European wheat is becoming more competitive.
Traders: Expect continued volatility, with upcoming U.S. export data and Black Sea developments driving price swings.

Markets remain sensitive to U.S. export trends, global supply adjustments, and trade negotiations.