📜 Wheat Prices Mixed – Euronext Falls, CBoT Wheat Rallies Amid Trade Optimism 📜

Wheat futures diverged on Wednesday, with Euronext wheat extending losses, while CBoT wheat rebounded as market sentiment improved. The May contract on Euronext dropped by €0.50 to €223/t, while CBOT May wheat surged by 11.5 cents to 548.25 ct/bu (€203/t), leading the rally in Soft Red Winter wheat. A stronger euro and speculative pressure continue to weigh on Euronext, while U.S. trade tensions eased slightly, lifting sentiment at CBOT.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 % Change
Euronext May 2025	€223.00/t	-€0.50	-0.2%
Euronext September 2025	€224.25/t	-€0.50	-0.2%
CBOT May 2025	548.25 ct/bu (€203/t)	+11.50 ct	+2.1%
CBOT July 2025	562.75 ct/bu (€208/t)	+6.25 ct	+1.18%

📌 CBOT wheat rebounded strongly, while Euronext continued its downward trend due to a strong euro and weak investor sentiment.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📈 CBoT Wheat Rallies on Trade Optimism

📊 Market sentiment improved at CBOT, with traders reacting positively to a slight de-escalation in U.S. trade tensions:

• U.S. delayed auto tariffs on Canada & Mexico by one month, offering a temporary relief to agricultural markets.
• President Trump signaled openness to exempting more products from tariffs, which eased fears of further disruptions in agricultural exports.

📌 Despite this, analysts still warn that trade conflicts may negatively impact global grain demand in the long term.

🔹 📉 Euronext Weighed Down by a Strong Euro & Speculative Selling

📉 European wheat remains under pressure due to:

• A stronger euro, which gained nearly 3 cents against the U.S. dollar since last Friday.
• Short-selling by financial investors, who expanded their net short positions from 39,927 to 103,175 contracts in the latest Euronext data.
• Increased sales of German wheat to Morocco, as lower prices boost export competitiveness.

📌 Export demand may improve, but speculative pressure is keeping prices low.

🔹 🌡️ Russian Wheat Production Update

📊 Russia’s top meteorologist, Roman Vilfand, stated that winter wheat is in better condition than expected.

• 87% of winter crops were rated “good” or “satisfactory”, up from 82% in January.
• Low precipitation remains a concern, particularly in southern regions.

📌 Better-than-expected Russian crop conditions could keep global wheat supplies ample.

🔹 📦 USDA Export Report Expectations

📊 USDA export sales data for the week ending February 27 is set for release today:

• Expected to show 225,000 to 450,000 tons for the 2024/25 season.
• Traders will be watching closely for signs of improving U.S. wheat demand.

📌 Better-than-expected export data could fuel further CBOT price gains.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days: March 8 – March 10, 2025)

📉 Expected Price Ranges for the Next 3 Trading Days:

📅 Contract	🔮 Price Forecast
Euronext May 2025	€220 – €225/t
Euronext September 2025	€222 – €227/t
CBOT May 2025	545 – 555 ct/bu (€201 – €205/t)

📌 If the U.S. export report exceeds expectations, CBOT could continue its recovery.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA (Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma – Winter Wheat Belt)

📍 Current: Moderate improvement in crop conditions, no frost threats.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ Mild temperatures, good moisture conditions expected.
• 🌧️ Some dryness risk in the Southern Plains but no immediate concern.

🇷🇺 Russia & 🇺🇦 Ukraine (Black Sea Region)

📍 Current: Winter wheat conditions improved, but dry weather persists.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ Stable temperatures, no extreme frost expected.
• 🌧️ Precipitation remains below normal, raising concerns for spring growth.

📌 Black Sea region remains a critical factor for global wheat supply dynamics.

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📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

📍 Global Wheat Ending Stocks (2021–2025)

📅 Season	🌎 Global Stocks (Mio. t)	📉 Change
2021/22	311.5	–
2022/23	301.0	-10.5 Mio. t
2023/24	295.8	-5.2 Mio. t
2024/25	290.3	-5.5 Mio. t

📍 Wheat Production Forecast 2024/25

🌍 Country	📅 2023/24 (Mio. t)	📅 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t)	📉 Change
🇺🇸 USA	385	384	-0.3 %
🇷🇺 Russia	91	87	-4.4 %
🇪🇺 EU	126	128	+1.6 %

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ CBOT wheat rebounded strongly as trade optimism lifted sentiment.
✅ Euronext wheat remains under pressure due to speculative selling and a strong euro.
✅ Russian wheat conditions are better than expected, reducing global supply concerns.
✅ Export demand needs to improve to sustain higher prices.

📌 Strategic Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Monitor export developments before making major sales.
🔹 Buyers: Consider purchasing opportunities, as European wheat is becoming more competitive.
🔹 Traders: Expect continued volatility, with upcoming U.S. export data and Black Sea developments driving price swings.

📍 Markets remain sensitive to U.S. export trends, global supply adjustments, and trade negotiations.