Wheat Prices Retreat Again – Euro Strength and Weather Easing Pressure Rally

Wheat Prices Retreat Again – Euro Strength and Weather Easing Pressure Rally

After a midweek rally, wheat markets weakened again on Friday. A stronger euro, fading weather risks, and weak EU exports pressured Euronext and CBOT futures.

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📈 Price Overview (converted to EUR)

Exchange	Delivery	Price	Change	EUR/t (approx)
Euronext	Sep ’25	€206.50/t	▼ −€2.75	€206.50/t
CBOT	Jul ’25	542.50 ct/bu	▼ −2.00 ct	~€175/t

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🔍 Market Drivers

• 📉 Profit-taking before the U.S. Memorial Day weekend
• 💱 Stronger euro gained over 1 cent vs. USD last week, capping EU competitiveness
• 🚢 EU export demand remains sluggish as prices climb
• 🌦 Weather risks fade after earlier gains due to dryness in Europe, Russia, and China
• 🇫🇷 FranceAgriMer (May 24):
  • Soft wheat rated good/excellent: 71% (−2 pp WoW)
  • Spring barley: 75% (−6 pp), Winter barley: 66% (−2 pp)
• 🌧 More rain is expected this week across France, easing crop stress
• 🇷🇺 Still dry in key Russian wheat regions – under observation
• 📊 CFTC (as of May 20):
  • CBOT wheat: Net short −108,893 contracts (▼ −18,002 WoW)
  • KC wheat: Net short −80,162 contracts (▼ – −637 WoW)

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💬 Market Commentary

Wheat prices showed clear signs of exhaustion heading into the U.S. long weekend. Investors trimmed long bets amid improved weather forecasts across Europe and better prospects for the upcoming harvest. The strong euro made EU wheat less competitive internationally, especially versus Russian offers. However, dryness in parts of Russia could yet reintroduce bullish risks if it persists.

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💡 Trading Strategy

• ⚖️ Neutral to cautious bias near-term, unless Russian weather worsens
• 📉 Further downside possible if euro remains firm and global supply outlook improves
• 🔎 Watch French and Russian rainfall updates closely this week

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Market	Trend	Outlook
Euronext	▼ Slightly lower	Pressure from currency and demand
CBOT	▶️ Sideways	U.S. holiday lull, watching export pace

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