📜 Wheat Prices Volatile Amid Trade Tensions and Global Supply Shifts 📜

Wheat markets saw mixed movements, with Euronext wheat posting gains while CBOT faced renewed pressure. Trade tensions, shifting global supply expectations, and uncertain demand continue to fuel market volatility. Russian wheat tariffs, India’s potential import policy shift, and unstable weather patterns add further complexity. Will the recent price trends hold, or is another shift ahead?

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 % Change
Euronext May 2025	€223.25/t	+€2.00	+0.9%
Euronext September 2025	€226.25/t	+€2.00	+0.9%
CBOT May 2025	554.00 ct/bu (€186.99/t)	-2.75 ct	-0.5%
CBOT July 2025	577.50 ct/bu (€194.50/t)	-0.75 ct	-0.1%

📌 Euronext wheat climbed higher, while CBOT saw slight losses amid trade policy concerns and fluctuating global demand.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📉 India Facing Pressure to Lower Wheat Import Tariffs

📊 India is under increasing pressure to lower wheat import duties, as industry groups demand a reduction from 40% to 5-10% to ease food inflation and stabilize wheat reserves.

• India’s wheat stockpiles are at a decade-low, raising concerns over potential shortages.
• Unusually high temperatures threaten crop yields, increasing the risk of production losses.

📌 A shift in India’s trade policy could significantly alter global wheat demand dynamics.

🔹 📉 France Lowers Export Projections Amid Weak Demand

📊 FranceAgriMer revised its export forecast for French soft wheat outside the EU downward:

• New estimate: 3.2 million tons, down from 3.4 million tons.
• Soft wheat ending stocks projected at 2.91 million tons, slightly above previous estimates but still nearly 9% lower than last season.

📌 Weaker export demand keeps European wheat under pressure despite recent price gains.

🔹 🌡️ Global Weather Conditions Remain a Key Factor

📊 Weather conditions vary significantly, affecting production outlooks:

• North America: Heavy rains across the Midwest and Great Plains have boosted winter wheat growth.
• Europe: Severe flooding in Spain contrasts with dry conditions in Eastern Europe, leading to regional production concerns.
• Ukraine & Russia: Rising temperatures aid winter wheat recovery, but low soil moisture may impact spring development.

📌 Weather-related uncertainties could drive volatility in the coming months.

🔹 📦 Ukraine Grain Exports at Risk After Missile Attack

📊 A missile strike on the port of Odessa resulted in casualties among dock workers loading wheat shipments:

• The attack followed the announcement of a 30-day ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine.
• Russia has yet to formally agree, raising concerns about further disruptions to Ukrainian grain exports.

📌 Geopolitical risks remain a wildcard in global wheat trade.

🔹 📉 U.S.-EU Trade Tensions Escalate

📊 The European Commission strongly criticized recent U.S. trade actions:

• President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and related goods, affecting €26 billion in EU exports.
• The EU is planning countermeasures worth up to €18 billion, which could include agricultural products.

📌 Any escalation in trade disputes could have ripple effects on wheat markets.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days: March 14 – March 16, 2025)

📉 Expected Price Ranges for the Next 3 Trading Days:

📅 Contract	🔮 Price Forecast
Euronext May 2025	€222 – €228/t
Euronext September 2025	€224 – €230/t
CBOT May 2025	550 – 560 ct/bu (€185 – €189/t)

📌 If trade tensions escalate further, CBOT could remain under pressure, while Euronext may continue to benefit from shifting global demand.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA (Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma – Winter Wheat Belt)

📍 Current: Soil moisture improving, no frost threats.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ Moderate temperatures with increased rainfall.
• 🌧️ Dryness risk easing, but some regions still need more moisture.

🇷🇺 Russia & 🇺🇦 Ukraine (Black Sea Region)

📍 Current: Winter wheat in stable condition, but moisture reserves remain low.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ Stable temperatures, reducing winterkill risk.
• 🌧️ Below-average precipitation could stress spring planting.

📌 Weather conditions remain mixed, keeping global supply risks in play.

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📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

📍 Global Wheat Ending Stocks (2021–2025)

📅 Season	🌎 Global Stocks (Mio. t)	📉 Change
2021/22	311.5	–
2022/23	301.0	-10.5 Mio. t
2023/24	295.8	-5.2 Mio. t
2024/25	290.3	-5.5 Mio. t

📍 Wheat Production Forecast 2024/25

🌍 Country	📅 2023/24 (Mio. t)	📅 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t)	📉 Change
🇦🇺 Australia	29.0	34.1	+17.6 %
🇺🇸 USA	385	384	-0.3 %
🇷🇺 Russia	91	87	-4.4 %
🇪🇺 EU	126	128	+1.6 %

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Euronext wheat prices climbed while CBOT faced resistance from trade policy concerns.
✅ India’s possible import policy changes could impact global wheat demand.
✅ France lowered its export projections, signaling weaker EU demand.
✅ Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and trade disputes between the U.S. and EU continue to create uncertainty.

📌 Strategic Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Monitor India’s wheat import policy for potential shifts in demand.
🔹 Buyers: Consider short-term purchasing opportunities as volatility remains high.
🔹 Traders: Expect continued price swings, with global trade disputes and weather developments shaping market direction.

📍 Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical events, trade policies, and weather conditions.

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✔ This report follows the standardized format for commodity market reports. 🚜