A fairly balanced November USDA wheat report and weak demand from importers are keeping wheat quotes low. And not even a decline in wheat harvest forecasts in Australia and Argentina can significantly support them, reports Graintrade
As a result of the low rainfall in the key wheat-growing regions in October, Refinitiv Commodities Research analysts lowered the forecast for the wheat harvest in Australia in 2023/24 MY by 1 million tons to 23.1 million tons. The USDA in November estimated production at 24.5 million tons.
USDA experts reduced the wheat harvest forecast in Argentina by 1.5 million tons to 15 million tons (12.55 million tons in FY 2022/23), while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates it at 15.4 million tons and the Rosario Exchange at 14.3 million tons.
December wheat futures rose slightly yesterday
| soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago | $212.7/t | + 0.6% |
| hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City | $235.7/t | + 0.2% |
| wheat on the Paris Euronext | €233.75/t or $248.7/t | + 0.6% |
| HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis | $267.8/t | – 0.2% |
Favorable weather
In the main exporting countries, the weather remains favorable for sowing winter crops, which restrains the increase in prices for the future harvest. As of November 12, 93% of the planned areas were sown with winter wheat in the USA (93% on average over 5 years), and 89% of the areas in Ukraine. Ukrainian farmers probably will not be able to sow all the planned areas, as frost and rain are forecast in the coming weeks.
US wheat exports
According to preliminary estimates, wheat exports from the United States in the first week of November decreased compared to the previous week from 134.3 to 72 thousand tons, which is inferior to the lowest weekly export figure of 86 thousand tons recorded in December 2022. At this time of the year, wheat exports from the US is traditionally low, as exporters pay more attention to soybean sales, but this reduction in supplies was the largest since 1983, i.e. in the last 52 years. The reason that wheat shipments are significantly lower than sales may be due to logistical difficulties caused by low water levels in the Mississippi.
Import/Export Statistics
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