Wheat Rally Stalls – Russia Regains Advantage, Demand Cools

Wheat Rally Stalls – Russia Regains Advantage, Demand Cools

After a brief rally mid-week, wheat markets turned lower again on Friday as weather risks eased and Russian wheat became price-competitive. Demand slowed, and fund buying faded.

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📈 Price Overview

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🔍 Key Factors

• 📉 Technical correction after a two-day rally

• 🛑 Investors say weather risks are priced in

• 🌍 IGC (May):

  • Global wheat production: 806 Mt (unchanged)

  • Consumption estimate lowered by 1 Mt

  • Ending stocks rose to 262 Mt (−7 Mt YoY)

• 🇷🇺 Russian wheat is more competitive after Euronext gains

• 🌧 Rains are expected in the Baltic region this weekend

• 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 Harvest risk in China and Russia is uncertain

• 🇺🇸 U.S. export sales (May 15):

  • Old crop: −13,373 t net

  • New crop: 882,202 t – new marketing-year high

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💡 Market Strategy

• ⚠️ Upside is limited unless new weather stress emerges

• 📉 Russian tenders continue to pressure EU bids

• 🔍 Monitor Tuesday’s USDA updates and Chinese harvest reports

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast