Weather Forces the Hazelnut Market Further into a Waiting Position

Many crackers had actually expected large quantities of raw material to be delivered to the local buying centres this week. However, due to the unstable weather and the resulting delay in the drying of the kernels, only marginal quantities were delivered again. Thus, the market is still in a waiting position. It is interesting to observe that market prices were actually expected to rise this week, but the opposite was the case. In fact, commodity prices fell slightly due to weak demand (domestic and export). This is not representative due to the low trading volume behind it, but it shows the difficulties in marketing for exporters at the moment. For the coming week we expect the market to start rolling. Then we will have the first statements regarding quality, core size distribution and the farmers’ propensity to sell. It will also be interesting to see whether some sellers will tend to take risky positions. The level of the market leader’s buying bid will be essential. Also, one should not underestimate the self-confidence of Turkish exporters. They have learned that waiting can also be an advantage.

In terms of the exchange rate, there has also been little change. It seems as if the market has already planned for the actions of politicians. Since a lot of capital has already been withdrawn in recent years, interest also seems to be lower than before. The development of the Turkish lira in the coming months will therefore probably be determined by the extent to which the chance of a regulated environment will arise, which can then attract capital again. As the polls regarding the upcoming presidential elections are currently far from certain, predicting a trend here is very difficult, so exporters should have little inclination to speculate on the development of the exchange rate.

In summary, there was little news this week. People are waiting for the season to finally start.

bullet points

• Unstable weather continues to delay the drying of the kernels.
• As no significant quantities of raw material are flowing into the market yet, there are no representative statements.
• The market continues to wait for the buying bid from the market leader.
• Demand remains subdued and there is a large gap between buyers’ and sellers’ expectations.

The exchange rate remained relatively stable over the week, as did export price lists.

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