In the August report, IGC experts raised the forecast for world wheat exports in 2023/24 from 196.9 to 197.2 million tonnes (206.6 million tonnes in 2022/23), particularly for the EU – from 35.7 to 36.2 (34.7) million tonnes, China – from 1.1 to 1.2 (1.1) million tonnes, the Russian Federation – from 45.2 to 46.6 (46.7) million tonnes reports Graintrade.
At the same time, the forecast for flour wheat exports has been lowered due to deteriorating quality in some countries – exporters in the northern hemisphere, in particular Argentina – from 12.5 to 12.4 (4.5) million tonnes, Canada – from 26.2 to 24.2 (25.2) million tonnes, the USA – from 19.9 to 19.1 (20.9) million tonnes.
Wheat production estimates lowered
The forecast for world wheat production in the 2023/24 MY has been reduced from 784.2 million tonnes to 784.1 million tonnes, which is significantly lower than the 803.3 million tonnes forecast for the 2022/23 MY. In particular, production forecasts for Canada have been lowered from 34 to 31.5 (33.8) million tonnes, for the EU countries from 134.6 to 133.3 (133.8) million tonnes, for the USA from 47.3 to 47.2 (44.9) million tonnes, while estimates for Ukraine have been raised from 23.2 to 24.5 (26.3) million tonnes and for the Russian Federation from 84.4 to 83.6 (95.4) million tonnes.
The estimate for world ending stocks of wheat in 2023/24 MY has been lowered compared to the previous report from 263.2 to 260.9 million tonnes (141.2 million tonnes in 2022/23 MY), notably for Canada – to 2.8 (3.1) million tonnes, EU countries – to 13.8 (15.9) million tonnes, Kazakhstan – to 1. 2m tonnes (1.3m tonnes), China – up to 138.4m tonnes (139.1m tonnes), India – up to 11.7m tonnes (12.2m tonnes), while the reserve estimates for the USA were raised to 16.8m tonnes (16m tonnes), Ukraine – to 2.8m tonnes (2m tonnes), the Russian Federation – to 10.4m tonnes (10.2m tonnes).
Source: Graintrade