Zimbabwe Grain and Feed Outlook 2025/26
Corn Production Rebounds, but Imports Remain Necessary
🧾 Summary
Following a severe drought in MY 2024/25, Zimbabwe’s corn production is forecast to more than double in MY 2025/26 due to improved rainfall and strong government support via the Presidential Inputs Scheme. However, domestic demand will still exceed supply, requiring continued imports, mostly from South Africa.
📊 Key Figures – Corn Market (in 1,000 MT unless noted)
| Category | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area Harvested (1,000 ha) | 1,000 | 900 | 1,000 |
| Yield (MT/ha) | 1.5 | 0.71 | 1.3 |
| Production | 1,500 | 635 | 1,300 |
| Imports | 700 | 1,300 | 1,000 |
| Total Domestic Use | 1,900 | 2,000 | 2,150 |
| Ending Stocks | 428 | 363 | 513 |
| Strategic Reserve Target | – | – | 500 |
🌧️ Production & Weather
- MY 2025/26 production is projected at 1.3 MMT, supported by strong La Niña-driven rainfall.
- Mid-season improvements rescued early planting delays in northern zones.
- Most crops are rain-fed, with limited irrigation due to low Kariba Dam levels and frequent power cuts.
- Over 3.5 million smallholder farmers received input support from the Presidential Inputs Scheme.
🌾 Sector Overview
🔹 Yield Trends (Page 6):
- Average yield to rebound to 1.3 MT/ha, from 0.71 MT/ha last year—an 80% increase.
- Still below potential due to macroeconomic pressures and fertiliser shortages.
🔹 Land Reform Legacy:
- Most corn is grown by communal farmers who cultivate 60% of the area but produce less than 40% of the output due to low efficiency.
🍛 Domestic Consumption
- Corn remains Zimbabwe’s staple food, mainly consumed as sadza.
- Human consumption to rise to 1.7 MMT (+6%), and feed use to 450,000 MT (+10%) due to growth in dairy, poultry, and beef.
🌍 Trade & Imports
- Despite higher production, Zimbabwe will import ~1 MMT of corn in late 2025/26.
- Most imports will come from South Africa.
- Import duties remain zero, but the government has recommended a temporary cereal import ban to support local producers.
- In 2024/25, Zimbabwe imported 1.3 MMT (835k MT white corn, 440k MT yellow corn), including 30k MT from the U.S..
💰 Marketing & Policy
- New marketing system separates farmers into five financing categories (e.g., state-funded, private, contractor-based).
- GMB (Grain Marketing Board) sets a producer price of $376.48/MT and maintains its role as the buyer of last resort.
- Strategic reserves target: 500,000 MT minimum—expected to be met in MY 2025/26.
🔭 Outlook
Zimbabwe’s corn sector shows signs of recovery, but vulnerabilities remain:
-
- Weather dependency remains high due to a lack of irrigation.
- Input costs and supply chains remain challenging.
- Imports will remain necessary for the foreseeable future.
Source: USDA