Zimbabwe Grain and Feed Outlook 2025/26

Zimbabwe Grain and Feed Outlook 2025/26

Corn Production Rebounds, but Imports Remain Necessary

🧾 Summary

Following a severe drought in MY 2024/25, Zimbabwe’s corn production is forecast to more than double in MY 2025/26 due to improved rainfall and strong government support via the Presidential Inputs Scheme. However, domestic demand will still exceed supply, requiring continued imports, mostly from South Africa.

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📊 Key Figures – Corn Market (in 1,000 MT unless noted)

Category	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26 (est.)
Area Harvested (1,000 ha)	1,000	900	1,000
Yield (MT/ha)	1.5	0.71	1.3
Production	1,500	635	1,300
Imports	700	1,300	1,000
Total Domestic Use	1,900	2,000	2,150
Ending Stocks	428	363	513
Strategic Reserve Target	–	–	500

 

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🌧️ Production & Weather

• MY 2025/26 production is projected at 1.3 MMT, supported by strong La Niña-driven rainfall.
• Mid-season improvements rescued early planting delays in northern zones.
• Most crops are rain-fed, with limited irrigation due to low Kariba Dam levels and frequent power cuts.
• Over 3.5 million smallholder farmers received input support from the Presidential Inputs Scheme.

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🌾 Sector Overview

🔹 Yield Trends (Page 6):

• Average yield to rebound to 1.3 MT/ha, from 0.71 MT/ha last year—an 80% increase.
• Still below potential due to macroeconomic pressures and fertiliser shortages.

🔹 Land Reform Legacy:

• Most corn is grown by communal farmers who cultivate 60% of the area but produce less than 40% of the output due to low efficiency.

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🍛 Domestic Consumption

• Corn remains Zimbabwe’s staple food, mainly consumed as sadza.
• Human consumption to rise to 1.7 MMT (+6%), and feed use to 450,000 MT (+10%) due to growth in dairy, poultry, and beef.

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🌍 Trade & Imports

• Despite higher production, Zimbabwe will import ~1 MMT of corn in late 2025/26.
• Most imports will come from South Africa.
• Import duties remain zero, but the government has recommended a temporary cereal import ban to support local producers.
• In 2024/25, Zimbabwe imported 1.3 MMT (835k MT white corn, 440k MT yellow corn), including 30k MT from the U.S..

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💰 Marketing & Policy

• New marketing system separates farmers into five financing categories (e.g., state-funded, private, contractor-based).
• GMB (Grain Marketing Board) sets a producer price of $376.48/MT and maintains its role as the buyer of last resort.
• Strategic reserves target: 500,000 MT minimum—expected to be met in MY 2025/26.

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🔭 Outlook

Zimbabwe’s corn sector shows signs of recovery, but vulnerabilities remain:

• • Weather dependency remains high due to a lack of irrigation.
  • Input costs and supply chains remain challenging.

• Imports will remain necessary for the foreseeable future.

Source: USDA