📈 Soaring Sugar: India’s 2025-26 Sugar Production Set to Surge

India’s sugar market is poised for a significant rebound in the 2025-26 marketing year, thanks to a favorable 2024 monsoon and an expansion in cane cultivation areas. The USDA Post in Delhi forecasts a 26% increase in sugar output, reaching an impressive 35 million tonnes (mt). This surge is attributed to improved irrigation from replenished groundwater and reservoir levels in major sugarcane states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh.

Last year’s above-normal rainfall not only expanded the cane area but also set the stage for enhanced yields. With the government’s timely increase in the fair and remunerative price (FRP), farmers are incentivized to plant more, further boosting the potential output. This optimistic outlook is supported by a projected rise in sugar recovery rates due to higher cane production and utilization.

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📊 Market Overview

Year	Projected Sugar Output (mt)	% Change
2024/25	28	–
2025/26	35	+25%

📉 Key Market Drivers

• Significant monsoon improvements leading to better irrigation and higher groundwater levels.
• Government policies such as increased FRP encouraging more extensive cane planting.
• Expected increase in sugar recovery rates due to more efficient cane utilization.

🌦️ Weather Forecast – Key Growing Regions

The upcoming weather conditions are expected to remain favorable, with mild temperatures and adequate rainfall, supporting the optimistic production forecasts.

🔮 Price Forecast – Next 3 Days

Given the positive production outlook and stable weather conditions, sugar prices are expected to remain steady with potential upward movements as market sentiment improves.