Decline in Sales in the Almond Market

The Almond Board of California has released the Almond Position Report with April shipments at 197.25 million pounds compared to 245.24 million pounds last year for a decrease of -19.57 percent. It had been widely expected that shipments would be lower in April since many packers and growers had been withdrawn from selling during the turbulent Bloom weather in February and March 2023, thus resulting in lower sales and subsequent shipments for April Additionally, one year ago, April 2022 shipments were fantastic as the shipping lines started to finally catch up on their shipments after the global shipping issues.

Current shipments

It is interesting to note that Spain, India, and UAE were down collectively 37.6 million pounds while the industry was down 48 million pounds for the month of April. These three countries represented the majority of the decrease in the industry in April.

Year-To-Date Shipments

The season-to-date shipments from August through April are now at 1.99 billion pounds compared to 1.93 billion pounds last season for a +3.49% percent change.

Crop Receipts

The 2022 crop receipts are now at 2.56 billion pounds getting closer to the objective estimate of 2.6 billion pounds.

Market

Almond Prices have risen up during the past month with the expectations of a smaller upcoming 2023 crop on the trees. In recent weeks two unofficial estimates have been announced with estimates of the 2023 crop at 2.29 and 2.35 billion pounds. The Subjective Crop Estimate will be announced on Friday by CASS and then the Objective Crop Estimate at the beginning of July. With these recent crop estimates, growers and packers see the almond trees having one of the lowest average yields per acre in almost 20 years.

In the past week, there has been a lot of discussion about the amount of drops taking place on the Independence and Monterey Varieties as well, which is concerning to growers. The upcoming Nonpareil crop will be one of the poorer ( less quantity) NP crops in recent history as well. Recent pricing has had Stds at $1.90, NPX 27/30 at $2.40 FAS, and NPX 23/25 at $2.50 FAS, a significant increase from the low prices in January 2023. Current market pricing is more based on the potential of the upcoming crop rather than on our actual current shipments and commitments.

New sales during April were at 114.68 million pounds compared to 168 million pounds in April 2022, for a 31.7% decrease.

Sold Percentage

The Industry is now sold at 76.5 percent for the current salable crop and carry-in. We are in a similar position as last year when we were at 77.7 percent sold.

Outlook

Expectations are for a weaker May shipment as well since many growers and packers were only selling minimal quantities during the past two months. Buyers have also bought minimal quantities for shipments in May and June and they will most likely re-enter the markets after the Subjective Crop Estimate is announced. Pricing is more impacted by the much lower quantity than hoped for the upcoming 2023 crop.

Import/Export Statistics

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