This week we could see an increase in hazelnut markets export prices for almost all producers, which was argued with increased prices for the raw material. The reason for the increase in raw material prices is that there are currently hardly any farmers who hand in raw materials at the local buying points. In addition, there are rumours that the TMO will no longer be a seller in the market until the end of April or even after the elections. Even though there is hardly any export demand at the moment, some exporters are still active in the market as buyers. Domestic demand has also increased somewhat again. Overall, however, we are talking about low volumes.
In general, we are hearing an increase in discussions about the further course of the season. Especially the role of the TMO is being treated controversially. Some assume that the TMO will now keep prices high by exercising restraint, others assume that the interest is more likely to go towards putting a certain amount on the market before the end of April. As the election issue has to be taken into account here, both options are quite possible.
Fortunately, the euro has gained strength this week, so much of the price increases have been offset. It should also be noted that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Turkish Central Bank decided at its meeting on 23.03.2023 to keep the key interest rate constant for the time being. Among other things, this contributed somewhat to the Turkish lira’s recovery against the euro towards the end of the week.
Frost Nights Expected
The first nights of frost are expected on the Black Sea coast next week. There are no warnings at the moment, but we assume that there will be reports in the coming week that will call for caution.
In general, we currently see a very inhomogeneous market among sellers regarding price lists and future expectations. Many have pursued very uneven strategies in recent weeks and currently have different stocks. Among the buyers, few are cautious, but the majority are hoping for a significant downward price correction. So far, there are hardly any signals from the market leader regarding possible further cover. They are currently observing the harvest in South America (Chile) and will then decide on further action.
We expect interest in offers and information to increase for the coming week, but we do not think that buying behaviour will change significantly.
Bullet points
- Raw material prices are rising significantly, as hardly any hazelnuts are flowing into the market.
- The strong euro and the weak Turkish lira are compensating for a large part of the increase in raw material prices.
- Next week, the first cold front is expected to hit the Black Sea coast, which could bring frost. As of today, however, this should not endanger the current vegetation status.
- The sellers’ market is becoming inhomogeneous in terms of pricing and future expectations.
- The majority of buyers expect the market to fall.