Receipts
The Almond Board of California released its “April Position Report,” the ninth report for the 2023 crop year. Key highlights include:
- April Receipts: 1.90 million pounds, a significant drop of 91.7% compared to last April’s 22.74 million pounds.
- Yearly Outlook: Receipts are quickly coming to an end, and the crop is unlikely to exceed 2.45 billion pounds.
Shipments
- Total Shipments: April saw 241.48 million pounds shipped, surpassing industry expectations of 220 million pounds. This is a 22.4% increase compared to last year.
- Domestic Shipments: 64.81 million pounds, up 22.4% from last year’s 56.82 million pounds, marking the best domestic shipment number of the crop year. Monthly shipments have remained consistent in the 57 to 64 million pound range, a trend expected to continue.
- Export Shipments: 176.67 million pounds, a 25.8% increase from last year’s 140.44 million pounds. Export shipments have been the highlight of this crop year, up 5.61% year-to-date. However, challenges are expected in maintaining this pace due to low availability for markets in India and the Middle East as the crop year ends.
Sales & Commitments
- Total Sales: 218.63 million pounds for April, a remarkable 90.6% increase from last year’s 114.68 million pounds. This robust sales performance indicates a strong sales strategy out of California.
- Commitments: For the 2023 crop year, commitments stand at 552.68 million pounds, down 2.12% from last year’s 564.65 million pounds. Despite higher year-to-date shipments, commitments remain steady. However, commitments may fall as the end of the year approaches and uncommitted inventory continues to decrease.
Uncommitted Inventory
Current Inventory: 557.72 million pounds, a 29.3% decrease from last year’s 788.75 million pounds. The decline is due to a smaller crop, strong year-to-date shipments, and consistent sales. The remaining inventory for the crop year will be tight, especially for “Extra” and “Supreme” almond grades, which are expected to be in short supply.
Market Implications
The past month has focused on the projected 3 billion pound crop for 2024, but the 2023 crop is closing with strong demand-driven performance. This report delivered bullish news with declining receipts and increasing sales and shipments, exceeding expectations. Consequently, California is unlikely to lower prices seen over the last month and may attempt to raise prices for items in tight supply as the crop year concludes.
Factors Influencing Future Prices
Several factors will determine whether almond prices will rise, remain stable, or fall:
- Supply and Demand: Tight supply and strong demand, especially for specific grades, could drive prices up.
- Market Transition: The transition between crop years will be tight, influencing short-term pricing.
- Projected Crop Size: The larger projected 2024 crop may lead to increased supply, potentially stabilizing or lowering prices.
- Sales Strategies: California’s sales approach and inventory management will play crucial roles in price setting.
- Export Market Dynamics: Challenges in key export markets could impact overall demand and pricing.
By monitoring these factors, stakeholders can better navigate the almond market and anticipate future price trends.