Stable Sunflower Prices in Ukraine
Sunflower prices in Ukraine have remained stable over the past week. This stability comes as processors reduce demand and some plants shift their focus towards processing canola. According to Spike Brokers, the current asking prices for sunflower are as follows:
- DAP Ukraine (regions): $370-395/t
- DAP Bulgaria (center): $450-455/t
- DAP Bulgaria (port): $445-450/t
- CIF Türkiye (port): $455-460/t
Sunflower Oil Demand Prices
The demand prices for sunflower oil are currently:
- FCA Ukraine (regions): $750-770/t
- DAP Ukraine (border): 800-810 €/t
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa): $840-850/t
- DAP Bulgaria (center): $860-865/t
- DAP Netherlands (center): 935-940 €/t
- DAP Macedonia: 845-850 €/t
Rapeseed Prices Hit Pre-Season Highs
Rapeseed prices have reached pre-season highs amid expectations of a reduced harvest in Europe. Manufacturers are taking advantage of this situation to secure sales from July to September. Current demand prices for rapeseed are:
- DAP Ukraine (Odesa): $435-440/t
- FCA Ukraine (border): 400-410 €/t
- DAP Bulgaria (center): 460-465 €/t
- DAP Latvia (center): 435-440 €/t
- DAP Germany (East): 460-465 €/t
Rising Soybean Prices
Soybean prices have risen across all bases. Current buyer offers for GMO soybeans include:
- DAP Ukraine (Danube): $440-445/t
- FCA Ukraine (border): 405-410 €/t
- DAP Italy (north): 450-460 €/t
Demand prices for non-GMO soybeans are:
- DAP Ukraine (border): 405-410 €/t
- FCA Ukraine (border): 420-425 €/t
- DAP Italy (north): 450-460 €/t
Producers in the west of Ukraine are actively entering into forward contracts for new crop soybeans with delivery to the EU.
Conclusion: Factors Influencing Future Price Trends
Several factors could determine whether prices for sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans will rise, remain stable, or fall in the coming months:
Weather Conditions: Adverse weather can impact crop yields and influence prices. For instance, expectations of a reduced rapeseed harvest in Europe have already pushed prices higher.
Market Demand: Fluctuations in demand from processors and changes in consumption patterns can affect prices. The current reduced demand for sunflowers from processors has stabilized prices.
Global Trade Policies: Changes in export regulations or trade agreements can impact supply chains and prices. For example, any new export restrictions or tariffs could affect the pricing dynamics.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Issues such as logistical challenges or geopolitical tensions can influence market stability and prices.
Currency Exchange Rates: Fluctuations in currency exchange rates can affect the competitiveness of exports and imports, subsequently influencing domestic prices.
Monitoring these factors will be crucial for stakeholders to navigate the market and anticipate future trends in agricultural commodity prices.
Source: GrainTrade