The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has reduced its estimate of the potential harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine this year.
On May 27, the Ukrainian Grain Association press service reported that their experts predicted a reduction in the 2024 harvest to 74.6 million tons. This is 1.5 million tons less compared to their previous figures.
The current forecast is based on average weather conditions over the past 5 years. So improvement or deterioration of these conditions in summer may cause adjustments. A very dry period in May in several regions in the east and south of the country confirmed the correctness of the expert’s conclusions. But weather is not the only reason for the potential reduction of harvest. UGA experts draw our attention to the reduction of sown areas in the new season. Farmers had to reduce areas under grain crops due to unfavorable price conditions on the world market and relatively expensive export logistics.
If this forecast comes true, the total export of grains and oilseeds from Ukraine in 2024/25 will be 43.5 million tons. This is to compare with 53.2 million tons that can be exported by end of the current season.
In particular, UGA predicts the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.1 million tons. This is 900 thousand tons less than the previous estimate. Potential exports in 2024/25 could be about 13 million tons.
The barley harvest could be 4.6 million tons, and potential exports could be about 2 million tons.
The corn harvest forecast is 25.5 million tons, which is 800 thousand tons less than the previous estimate. At the same time, potential exports could amount to about 20.5 million tons.
As for oilseeds, the harvest of Ukrainian sunflower in 2024 could be about 13.7 million tons. Its export next season could reach 250 thousand tons. While processing of sunflower into oil – almost 13.6 million tons .
The rapeseed harvest can be expected at 4.3 million tons, and its exports – about 3.4 million tons.
The soybeans harvest can be expected at 5.5 million tons, and its exports – about
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