EU Peas Market: Tightening Supply and Robust Yields Shape 2025 Outlook

The European peas market is entering 2025 under the influence of significant shifts in both supply and demand fundamentals. Despite above-average yields, the latest estimates from the European Commission point to a 6% decline in overall EU pulse production compared to the previous year, with field peas experiencing the steepest drop. The contraction is primarily attributed to a dramatic 19% reduction in cultivated area, while yields have improved to 22.7 t/ha from 20.7 t/ha in 2024. Consequently, total fodder pea output is expected to reach just 1.8 million tonnes, down 11% year-on-year. This tightening supply comes as global demand for plant proteins remains strong, particularly in feed and food sectors, raising the prospect of firmer prices through the coming season. Meanwhile, the weather outlook remains a crucial variable; recent patterns suggest mostly favorable conditions, but localized dryness in eastern Europe could impact late-season yields. Against this backdrop, market participants are closely monitoring inventory levels, trade flows, and speculative activity as the market recalibrates to the new supply landscape. The following report provides a comprehensive analysis of current prices, supply-demand drivers, and a short-term trading outlook for peas in the EU and key export origins.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Poland	Yellow	98%	Kiełczygłow	FCA	0.37	0.36	+2.8%	Firm
Ukraine	Yellow	98%	Odesa	FCA	0.34	0.34	0.0%	Stable
Ukraine	Green	98%	Odesa	FCA	0.50	0.50	0.0%	Stable
UK	Marrowfat	–	London	FOB	1.27	1.27	0.0%	Stable
UK	Green	–	London	FOB	0.95	0.95	0.0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• EU pulse production (2025): 6.3 million tonnes (-6% YoY)
• Field pea output: 1.8 million tonnes (-11% YoY, sharpest decline in pulses)
• Yield: 22.7 t/ha (vs. 20.7 t/ha in 2024)
• Main driver: 19% reduction in sown area
• Global demand: Remains robust, especially for feed and food applications
• Inventory: Expected to tighten, especially for yellow peas
• Speculative activity: Moderate, with some buying interest on supply concerns

📊 Fundamentals

• EU-28 record (2017): 6.9 million tonnes (not reached in 2025)
• Soybeans: 2.9 million tonnes (45% of legume harvest, -3% YoY)
• Beans: 1.3 million tonnes (-9% YoY)
• Sweet lupine: 341,000 tonnes (+7% YoY)
• Major exporters: EU, Ukraine, UK, Canada, Russia
• Major importers: EU (internal), China, India, Bangladesh, Middle East

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Western & Central Europe: Favorable rainfall and mild temperatures support above-average yields.
• Eastern Europe & Ukraine: Some areas report localized dryness, potentially limiting late-season yield gains.
• Short-term risk: Watch for heatwaves or extended dry spells, especially in June-July.

Weather conditions remain a key risk factor for final output, particularly for late-maturing crops in Ukraine and eastern EU states.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (est., mln t)	YoY Change	Stock Situation
EU	6.3	-6%	Tightening
Ukraine	~0.8	Stable	Ample
UK	~0.3	Stable	Stable
Canada	~3.5	+3%	Ample
Russia	~2.2	+2%	Stable

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Sellers: Consider holding stocks for further price appreciation as supply tightens, especially for yellow peas.
• Buyers: Lock in contracts early, particularly for feed and food-grade peas, to hedge against further price rises.
• Traders: Monitor weather developments in eastern Europe and speculative positioning for short-term volatility opportunities.
• Importers: Diversify sourcing to include Ukraine and Canada to mitigate EU supply risks.
• Watch: Upcoming USDA and EU crop progress reports for potential market-moving updates.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Origin	Type	Current Price (€/kg)	Forecast Range (€/kg)	Trend
Poland	Yellow	0.37	0.37–0.38	Firm/Up
Ukraine	Yellow	0.34	0.34–0.35	Stable/Firm
Ukraine	Green	0.50	0.50–0.51	Stable
UK	Marrowfat	1.27	1.27–1.28	Stable
UK	Green	0.95	0.95–0.96	Stable