➡ Corn Market Remains Cautious After WASDE – U.S. Harvest Record Meets Global Stock Concern
Corn futures ended Monday mixed as the WASDE report provided no major surprises. While the U.S. expects a record crop, global stocks are seen falling to a multi-year low.
Corn prices remained under pressure early this week. The WASDE report confirmed a record U.S. harvest for 2025/26 but also revealed a sharp drop in global ending stocks. While early delivery contracts held steady in Europe, new crop prices softened. In the U.S., futures diverged slightly between old and new crop positions.
[cmb_offer ids=439,308,736]
📈 Prices
| Exchange | Contract | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT | Jul 25 | 445.25 USc/bu | -2.75 USc (-0.61%) | Neutral/Bearish |
| CBOT | Dec 25 | 443.50 USc/bu | -2.00 USc (-0.45%) | Neutral |
| Euronext | Jun 25 | 192.50 EUR/t | 0.00 EUR (0.00%) | Stable |
| Euronext | Nov 25 | 198.25 EUR/t | 0.00 EUR (0.00%) | Stable |
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn (yellow feed) | Ukraine | Odesa | FCA | 0.26 USD/kg | 0.00 |
| Popcorn | Argentina | Buenos Aires | FOB | 0.85 USD/kg | 0.00 |
| Corn (yellow) | France | Paris | FOB | 0.29 EUR/kg | 0.00 |
| Corn (starch, organic) | India | New Delhi | FOB | 2.07 USD/kg | 0.00 |
| Corn | Ukraine | Odesa | FOB | 0.22 USD/kg | 0.00 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- USDA WASDE: U.S. 2024/25 corn crop forecast at a record 15.82 billion bushels (95.3 million acres, 181 bu/ac yield).
- Global Production: 2024/25 forecast raised to 1,264.98 million t (vs. 1,221.28 million t in 2023/24).
- Global Ending Stocks: 2024/25 cut slightly to 287.3 million t; 2025/26 seen sharply lower at 277.8 million t (12-year low).
- South America: Argentina steady at 50 million t; Brazil up 4 million t to 130 million t.
- US Exports: 1.22 million t shipped week of May 8 (down 24% w/w, up 22% y/y); YTD exports up 29% over last year.
- Major Buyers: Japan, Mexico, South Korea.
📊 Fundamentals
- US Planting Progress: 62% planted (vs. 56% 5-yr avg); emergence at 28% (vs. 21% avg).
- Speculative Positioning: Hedge funds remain net short, but have reduced positions slightly as weather risks rise.
- Inventories: US 2025/26 ending stocks projected at 1.8 billion bu (below trader expectations).
- Demand: Feed and ethanol demand steady; export demand strong but volatile.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- US Midwest: Recent rains have improved soil moisture, supporting early crop development. Forecasts indicate a mix of warm and wet conditions, ideal for further planting and germination.
- South America: Brazil’s safrinha crop benefits from timely rains; Argentina’s conditions stable.
- Risks: Watch for potential heatwaves or excessive rainfall in June, which could impact yield projections.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production (m t) | Change vs. 2023/24 | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (m t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 390.0 | +15.0 | 48.9 |
| Brazil | 130.0 | +4.0 | 10.8 |
| Argentina | 50.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 |
| EU | 62.5 | +1.5 | 6.5 |
| China | 288.8 | +2.5 | 211.0 |
| World | 1,264.98 | +43.7 | 287.3 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor U.S. weather closely—adverse conditions could quickly shift sentiment bullish.
- Exporters: Consider forward sales to lock in current prices amid global stock declines.
- Importers: Watch for price dips as the U.S. harvest approaches; consider staggered purchasing.
- Speculators: Short-term range trading is likely; upside risks if weather deteriorates or export demand surges.
- End users: Secure supply for Q3/Q4 as stocks tighten and volatility increases.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange | Contract | Forecast Price | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT | Jul 25 | 444–447 USc/bu | Sideways/Volatile |
| Euronext | Jun 25 | 192–194 EUR/t | Stable |
| FOB Ukraine | Spot | 0.22–0.26 USD/kg | Stable |
[cmb_chart ids=439,308,736]