Corn Market Analysis: Record US Crop Meets Tightening Global Stocks

➡ Corn Market Remains Cautious After WASDE – U.S. Harvest Record Meets Global Stock Concern

Corn futures ended Monday mixed as the WASDE report provided no major surprises. While the U.S. expects a record crop, global stocks are seen falling to a multi-year low.

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Corn prices remained under pressure early this week. The WASDE report confirmed a record U.S. harvest for 2025/26 but also revealed a sharp drop in global ending stocks. While early delivery contracts held steady in Europe, new crop prices softened. In the U.S., futures diverged slightly between old and new crop positions.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT	Jul 25	445.25 USc/bu	-2.75 USc (-0.61%)	Neutral/Bearish
CBOT	Dec 25	443.50 USc/bu	-2.00 USc (-0.45%)	Neutral
Euronext	Jun 25	192.50 EUR/t	0.00 EUR (0.00%)	Stable
Euronext	Nov 25	198.25 EUR/t	0.00 EUR (0.00%)	Stable

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price	Change
Corn (yellow feed)	Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.26 USD/kg	0.00
Popcorn	Argentina	Buenos Aires	FOB	0.85 USD/kg	0.00
Corn (yellow)	France	Paris	FOB	0.29 EUR/kg	0.00
Corn (starch, organic)	India	New Delhi	FOB	2.07 USD/kg	0.00
Corn	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.22 USD/kg	0.00

🌍 Supply & Demand

• USDA WASDE: U.S. 2024/25 corn crop forecast at a record 15.82 billion bushels (95.3 million acres, 181 bu/ac yield).
• Global Production: 2024/25 forecast raised to 1,264.98 million t (vs. 1,221.28 million t in 2023/24).
• Global Ending Stocks: 2024/25 cut slightly to 287.3 million t; 2025/26 seen sharply lower at 277.8 million t (12-year low).
• South America: Argentina steady at 50 million t; Brazil up 4 million t to 130 million t.
• US Exports: 1.22 million t shipped week of May 8 (down 24% w/w, up 22% y/y); YTD exports up 29% over last year.
• Major Buyers: Japan, Mexico, South Korea.

📊 Fundamentals

• US Planting Progress: 62% planted (vs. 56% 5-yr avg); emergence at 28% (vs. 21% avg).
• Speculative Positioning: Hedge funds remain net short, but have reduced positions slightly as weather risks rise.
• Inventories: US 2025/26 ending stocks projected at 1.8 billion bu (below trader expectations).
• Demand: Feed and ethanol demand steady; export demand strong but volatile.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Recent rains have improved soil moisture, supporting early crop development. Forecasts indicate a mix of warm and wet conditions, ideal for further planting and germination.
• South America: Brazil’s safrinha crop benefits from timely rains; Argentina’s conditions stable.
• Risks: Watch for potential heatwaves or excessive rainfall in June, which could impact yield projections.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (m t)	Change vs. 2023/24	2024/25 Ending Stocks (m t)
USA	390.0	+15.0	48.9
Brazil	130.0	+4.0	10.8
Argentina	50.0	0.0	2.8
EU	62.5	+1.5	6.5
China	288.8	+2.5	211.0
World	1,264.98	+43.7	287.3

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor U.S. weather closely—adverse conditions could quickly shift sentiment bullish.
• Exporters: Consider forward sales to lock in current prices amid global stock declines.
• Importers: Watch for price dips as the U.S. harvest approaches; consider staggered purchasing.
• Speculators: Short-term range trading is likely; upside risks if weather deteriorates or export demand surges.
• End users: Secure supply for Q3/Q4 as stocks tighten and volatility increases.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Forecast Price	Trend
CBOT	Jul 25	444–447 USc/bu	Sideways/Volatile
Euronext	Jun 25	192–194 EUR/t	Stable
FOB Ukraine	Spot	0.22–0.26 USD/kg	Stable