The global cardamom market is currently navigating a period of considerable volatility, driven by a potent mix of supply disruptions, weather adversities, and fluctuating demand. In India, which remains the epicenter of big cardamom production, intermittent price declines have been observed, largely due to lackluster demand despite increased auction activity. Auction arrivals remain well below normal, keeping the market on edge, as limited supply has momentarily lifted auction prices. However, spot market activity is subdued, resulting in a marginal drop in wholesale prices, with the popular Kainchi cut recently declining by $0.60 to trade between $17.88 and $18.00 per kilogram. This comes after a previous dip of $0.36 to $0.42 per kg, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to even minor changes in demand and supply dynamics.
Underlying these price movements is a significant reduction in overall availability. The most recent harvests in India suffered 60–70% crop losses due to unfavorable weather, particularly elevated temperatures and heavy rainfall that have also disrupted logistics in Assam, Meghalaya, and neighboring regions. The second crop outlook remains weak, and regional supply is further constrained by similar crop damage in Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim. On the export front, India shipped 1,181.22 tonnes of big cardamom in the first 11 months of 2024–25, up from 1,055.09 tonnes a year earlier, reflecting resilient international demand even as domestic sales waver. Looking ahead, renewed buyer support could spark a price recovery, but persistent weak demand and ongoing weather risks will keep the market on a knife’s edge.
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Cardamom powder
FOB 26.20 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 19.20 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 17.30 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type/Grade | Origin | Organic | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change (USD) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom powder | – | IN | Yes | 26.20 | 26.10 | +0.10 | 2025-05-17 | Stable/Firm |
| Cardamom whole | green, 7.5-8 mm | IN | Yes | 19.20 | 19.08 | +0.12 | 2025-05-17 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm, 99% purity | IN | Yes | 17.30 | 17.23 | +0.07 | 2025-05-17 | Weak |
| Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm | IN | No | 25.85 | 25.72 | +0.13 | 2025-05-17 | Firm |
| Cardamom whole | green 7-7.2 mm | IN | No | 23.72 | 23.53 | +0.19 | 2025-05-17 | Firm |
| Cardamom whole | green 7.5 mm | IN | No | 25.10 | 24.98 | +0.12 | 2025-05-17 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.5-6.8 mm | IN | No | 22.30 | 22.38 | -0.08 | 2025-05-17 | Weak |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Auction arrivals remain well below normal, with overall availability sharply reduced due to crop losses of 60–70% in major producing states.
- Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim: All major producing regions outside India report significant crop damage and lower-than-normal supplies, further tightening the regional market.
- Demand: Domestic demand remains weak, with spot and wholesale sales subdued. Export demand is relatively firmer, as seen by a year-on-year increase in Indian exports.
- Exports (India): Jan–Nov 2024–25: 1,181.22 tonnes ($2.37 million) vs. 1,055.09 tonnes ($1.41 million) last year.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production: Weather-related crop losses (60–70%) in India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim.
- Inventories: Tight inventories due to poor harvests and limited arrivals.
- Speculative Positioning: Weak spot sales and cautious buying; auction activity up but not enough to offset demand weakness.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Recent Conditions: Heavy rainfall and flooding in Assam, Meghalaya, and Northeast India have disrupted production and logistics.
- Forecast: Continued risk of erratic weather in the coming weeks, with potential for further crop stress and logistical delays.
- Impact: Any additional adverse weather could further tighten supply and support prices; however, persistent weak demand may cap gains.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country/Region | 2024–25 Output Trend | Stock Situation | Key Issues |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | Sharp decline (60–70% loss) | Tight | Weather, weak demand |
| Nepal | Much lower than normal | Very tight | Crop damage, high import cost |
| Bhutan | Significant crop damage | Very tight | Supply disruptions |
| Sikkim | Significant crop damage | Very tight | Supply disruptions |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor weather developments in Northeast India and neighboring countries closely—further adverse events could trigger sharp price spikes.
- Watch for signs of renewed retail and wholesale demand; a pickup could lead to a swift recovery in prices.
- Exporters should capitalize on firm international demand and tight regional supply.
- Buyers may consider covering near-term requirements as supply remains constrained and further downside appears limited.
- Speculative traders should remain cautious given high volatility and the risk of sudden price reversals.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (USD/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom powder | 26.20 | 26.10 – 26.40 | Stable to Firm |
| Cardamom whole (7.5-8 mm, organic) | 19.20 | 19.00 – 19.40 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole (6.0-6.5 mm, organic) | 17.30 | 17.20 – 17.50 | Weak/Stable |