The big cardamom market remains under pressure as extreme monsoon rains, subsequent flooding, and erratic weather patterns have caused significant supply disruptions in Northeast India and neighboring regions. After an early monsoon brought initial optimism, excessive rainfall in major producing states—Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, and parts of Assam—has severely reduced output for both main harvests. Spot market demand has cooled, with limited arrivals and weaker buying interest driving prices lower despite earlier auction highs. Price corrections of about $0.48 per kg have been noted in wholesale markets, now trading at approximately $18.48–$18.60 per kg. Auction prices recently ranged widely from $15 to $21.60 per kg, reflecting uncertainty and mixed sentiment among traders and producers.
Market expectations hinge heavily on continued weather developments, short-term demand shifts, and recovery potential for the next crop cycle. Notably, Nepal and Bhutan have joined India in reporting production setbacks due to unseasonal rainfall and high temperatures, while the cost of imports from the region remains high. Despite subdued domestic supply, export volumes have improved year-over-year, providing partial support to market confidence. However, unless a substantial uptick in demand materializes or fresh supply increases, prices appear set to remain bounded within a relatively stable, albeit elevated, band for the upcoming weeks. Market participants are urged to maintain a close watch on upcoming weather updates and spot market movements for trading cues.
📈 Prices
| Product |
Type |
Origin |
Location |
Delivery (FOB) |
Latest Price (EUR/kg) |
Previous Price (EUR/kg) |
Update Date |
Sentiment |
| Cardamom powder |
– |
IN |
New Delhi |
FOB |
25.90 |
26.00 |
2025-06-14 |
Bearish/Range-bound |
| Cardamom whole |
green 7.5-8 mm |
IN |
New Delhi |
FOB |
18.85 |
18.95 |
2025-06-14 |
Softening |
| Cardamom whole |
green 6.0-6.5 mm, 99% purity |
IN |
New Delhi |
FOB |
17.00 |
17.08 |
2025-06-14 |
Lower |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Severe monsoon flooding in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Assam led to estimated 60–70% first harvest losses and continued stress on the second crop.
- Nepal: Major production declines and high-cost imports have their supply less viable.
- Bhutan: Erratic weather mirrored Indian challenges, impacting supply.
- Demand: Spot market demand remains lackluster, holding back any recovery in prices despite limited arrivals.
- Exports: India exported 1,368.34 tonnes of big cardamom for $27.53 million in FY 2024–25 (vs. 1,280.82 tonnes, $17.77 million last year), indicating some robust overseas interest.
📊 Fundamentals
- Weather Stress: Extended heavy rainfall and flooding have sharply curtailed output, with aggregate crop losses across the region and no rapid normalization expected soon.
- Production Comparison:
| Country |
Estimate 2024/25 (‘000 t) |
Yr/Yr Change (%) |
| India |
~7.5–8.5 |
-60 to -70 |
| Nepal |
~2.2 |
-30 to -40 |
| Bhutan |
~1.8 |
-25 to -35 |
- Inventories: Domestic stocks are drawn tight, with low carryover anticipated for Q3 2025.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Flood risks remain for Northeast India through late June, with above-average precipitation expected for Sikkim and neighboring states, risking further delays to post-monsoon recovery.
- Short-term forecast (next 7 days): Scattered showers, high humidity, and temperature variability between 21°C–27°C expected in major cardamom-growing districts.
- Potential Effect: Continued rainfall may hinder drying and logistics, raising concerns over possible fungal disease for late-planted crops and limiting harvest quality improvements.
🌐 Global Export/Import Snapshot
| Country |
2024/25 Projected Exports (‘000 t) |
Key Buyers |
| India |
~1.37 |
Gulf, Asia, Europe |
| Nepal |
<0.6 |
India, Middle East |
| Bhutan |
<0.4 |
India, Bangladesh |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📌 Expect range-bound trading over the next week as supply constraints and weak market activity match each other.
- 📌 Short-term recovery is unlikely unless demand strengthens due to end-user restocking or festival demand.
- 📌 Monitor import flows from Nepal and Bhutan—if commercial viability returns, Indian market could see added supply pressure.
- 📌 Watch weather updates closely; further flood damage or a sudden dry spell could create volatility and price reactions.
- 📌 Exporters may benefit from inventory liquidation on price rallies, given supportive global demand and reduced Indian availability.
- 📌 Importers should plan for possible continued high prices and seek forward contracts if further supply delays are expected.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Indian Exchanges/Markets)
| Product |
Location |
Current (EUR/kg) |
Forecast Range (EUR/kg) |
Sentiment |
| Cardamom whole, green 7.5-8 mm |
New Delhi |
18.85 |
18.50–19.10 |
Sideways/Soft |
| Cardamom whole, green 6.0-6.5 mm |
New Delhi |
17.00 |
16.80–17.30 |
Sideways |
| Cardamom powder |
New Delhi |
25.90 |
25.70–26.10 |
Stable |
