Rapeseed Markets Stage Resilient Comeback Amid Tight Canadian Stocks and Positive Euronext Momentum

The global rapeseed market is experiencing renewed momentum as prices on leading exchanges surge amid persistent concerns over tight inventories and delayed fresh supply. Recent price dynamics on Euronext and ICE indicate a market struggling to reconcile near-term shortfalls—especially in Canada—with robust crush demand and broader oilseed trends. The August 2025 Euronext rapeseed contract maintained its advance at €492.50/t, while Canadian canola futures climbed as well, with November up by CAD 3.90 to CAD 739.80/t.

Notably, the shrinking spread between July and November Canadian contracts—now a mere CAD 4.70—confounds traders who have expected a more significant premium for nearby deliveries if end-season inventories are as low as official data suggest. In parallel, EU physical markets remain supported, with French FOB prices stable at €0.54/kg, and Ukrainian offers inching up toward €0.51/kg FCA Odesa, reflecting ongoing logistical uncertainties. Weather risk looms over the coming weeks, as critical pod-filling stages in Western Europe and Canada coincide with volatile weather forecasts. Market participants should remain attentive to harvest progression signals and further USDA or Statistics Canada data, as these will set the tone for spreads and physical premiums in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices: Key Futures and Physical Market Quotes

Euronext (MATIF) Rapeseed Futures

Contract	Last Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Aug 25	492.50	+3.50	Bullish
Nov 25	499.00	Stable	Stable
Feb 26	500.50	Stable	Stable
May 26	499.75	Stable	Neutral

ICE Canada Canola Futures

Contract	Settlement (CAD/t)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Jul 25	744.50	+1.40	Moderate
Nov 25	739.80	+3.90	Bullish
Jan 26	748.70	+4.20	Firm

Spot Physical Market (EUR/kg)

Origin	Specification	Delivery	Latest Price	Previous Price	Change
FR (Paris)	Standard	FOB	0.54	0.54	0.00
UA (Kyiv)	42% min oil, 98% purity	FCA	0.49	0.47	+0.02
UA (Odesa)	42% min oil, 98% purity	FCA	0.51	0.49	+0.02

🌍 Supply & Demand: Market Drivers

• Canadian Stock Tension: Persistent doubts over Canadian grain inventories continue supporting the market. Official statistics indicate tight pre-harvest stocks, sparking pronounced spot demand and shrinking calendar spreads.
• EU Rapeseed Balance: European crushers maintain steady buying interest, given resilient demand for vegoil and meal, while Ukrainian supply faces ongoing logistical and political uncertainties.
• Oilseed Complex Momentum: Soybean and soybean oil rallies spill over into the rapeseed/canola complex, especially when soyoil strengthens on the CBOT.
• Speculation: Investment flows and positioning in the oilseed complex, with managed money remaining net long rapeseed on Euronext.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks, and Trade

• Canada: Pre-harvest rapeseed stocks are officially reported at minimal levels, set to tighten further if new-crop yields underperform due to weather stress.
• EU: European harvest prospects remain mixed, with better-than-average early yields in parts of France, but concerns in Germany and CEE due to dryness during flowering.
• Ukraine: Logistics and crop progress are being closely watched. Some delays and quality concerns are noted but overall output is expected close to last year’s.
• Global: Robust demand from China and the EU remains pivotal, while imports from Australia into Europe are set to fall as that harvest comes off a lower base.

⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Western Europe: Upcoming forecasts point to scattered showers across Northern France and Germany, potentially supporting late yield formation but raising local disease pressure.
• Canada: Prairies face above-average temperatures and spells of dryness over the next week. Soil moisture deficits in major canola-growing provinces risk trimming yield potential if precipitation remains limited in late June.
• Ukraine: Moderate weather is expected in the next 3 days, supporting crop maturity and easing frost or flooding risks at this late stage.

🌏 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Production 2024 (mt)	Ending Stocks 2024/25 (mt)	Key Export Flow
EU	19.2	2.1	Internally, China
Canada	17.8	0.6	EU, China, Japan
Ukraine	3.9	0.4	EU
Australia	4.4	0.7	EU, China, Japan

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Look for moderate upside in the Euronext August and November contracts as Canadian supply anxiety persists.
• Monitor Western European and Canadian weather closely—further dryness or heat spikes could prompt fund-driven rallies.
• Spot market buyers may wish to secure forward cover as Q3 logistics and new-crop flows from Ukraine are subject to shipping and quality risks.
• Be aware of short covering in Canada as calendar spreads remain historically tight—any deterioration in Prairie conditions could result in a sharp squeeze.
• Physical premiums in both France and Ukraine are set to edge higher into July if weather risk materialises or harvest delays emerge.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Euronext Aug 25	492.50 EUR/t	493 – 498 EUR/t	Mildly Bullish
ICE Nov 25	739.80 CAD/t	741 – 752 CAD/t	Bullish
Physical FR FOB	0.54 EUR/kg	0.54 – 0.56 EUR/kg	Firm
Physical UA FCA Odesa	0.51 EUR/kg	0.51 – 0.52 EUR/kg	Upward Bias