Almond Market Update: Spanish Setbacks Countered by Area Gains – Prices Hold Steady in Uncertain Climate

The global almond market is navigating a year marked by contrasting developments in production and prices. In Spain, one of Europe’s major almond producers, adverse weather—especially incessant rains during flowering—has slashed yields in key provinces like Córdoba and Granada by up to 30%. Producers faced difficulties entering the fields for treatments, compounded by a lack of alternative active ingredients against pests. Yet, the quality and size of harvested fruit have largely remained good, and the notable rise in productive acreage has cushioned the overall supply drop. Nationally, Spain’s almond production in 2025 is estimated at 127,639 tons, up 5% from last season and a striking 34% above the four-year average, reflecting years of investment in new plantations coming to fruition.

Internationally, almond prices have broadly softened in early June 2025, reflecting the market’s confidence in robust U.S. output and mixed signs from Mediterranean supply. U.S. almond kernel prices (Carmel, SSR 18/20, FAS Washington D.C.) eased to €6.80/kg, while organic Nonpareil SSR fetches €9.40/kg. Spanish Marcona types range from €6.70 to €9.00/kg in Madrid, also trending slightly lower week-on-week. Iranian origins are mixed, with Mamra kernel prices rising amid supply challenges.

Despite near-term volatility, the market’s broader sentiment remains stable-to-bearish, as increased productive areas in Spain and buoyant U.S. projections balance out regional production losses. Still, grower concerns linger over weather extremes, persistent pest pressures, and lingering drought effects in several Mediterranean provinces. These variables may reintroduce price risk going into late summer and the 2025 harvest campaign.

📈 Prices at a Glance

Origin	Type / Grade	Location	Delivery	Current Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
US	Carmel, SSR 18/20	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.80	-0.73	Neutral
US	Carmel, SSR 20/22	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.75	-0.74	Neutral
US	Nonpareil, natural, organic	Washington D.C.	FOB	9.40	-0.53	Stable
Spain	Marcona, 12/14	Madrid	FOB	6.70	-0.74	Soft
Spain	Marcona, S/16	Madrid	FOB	9.00	-0.55	Soft
Spain	Valencia, 10/12	Madrid	FOB	5.68	-0.70	Soft
Iran	Mamra, grade a	Tehran	FOB	11.23	+2.94	Firm
Iran	Inshell Sangi	Tehran	FOB	1.76	+2.92	Volatile

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Spain: Regional production loss of ~4.7% (to 39,636 tons) masked by increases in planted area, especially in Andalusia (+12,126 ha; +4,133 irrigated).
• Severe regional impacts: Córdoba (-30%), Granada (-10.7%), Huelva (-14%), Malaga (-21.9%). Seville stable thanks to new irrigated land despite individual losses.
• US Output: Another large harvest expected—estimated at over 1.35 million short tons—keeping global supplies ample.
• Iran: Production stability challenged by pests and adverse conditions; price uplift for premium Mamra kernels.
• Global Demand: Consumption growth remains robust in the snack and confectionery sectors, with stable EU and Asian import demand.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Insights

• Strong Spanish national production countered by stark regional shortfalls.
• Quality and fruit size are generally high, offsetting some volume losses.
• Weather-imposed treatment challenges and pest management limitations are a key headwind in Spain.
• The US continues to dominate with cost-efficient output, keeping pressure on EU and Iranian varieties.
• Iranian Mamra prices up on shorter supply and renewed import interest.
• Speculators remain largely neutral; physical buyers are locking in contracts for Q3 amid supply uncertainty in the Mediterranean basin.

☀️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• Spain: Recent weather (as of June 2025): Showers persist in Andalusia, risk of fungal disease continues, but fruit development is aided by cooler temperatures; outlook for drier, warmer weeks ahead—positive for maturation but may stress rainfed fields.
• US California: Favourable weather with sufficient water allocations, barring localised spring frost events; pollination and fruit set reported as satisfactory.
• Iran: Dry, hot conditions—although beneficial for late-stage fruit hardening, may constrain non-irrigated crops.

Potential for yield losses remains highest in southern Spain if rainfall persists through late June. Early-season drought stress in Malaga and Granada will be monitored for impact on kernel fill and quality.

🌏 Production & Inventory – International Comparison

Country	2025 Production Estimate (tons)	Stock Trends	Key Notes
US	~1,350,000	Abundant	Strong export pipeline, steady Asian demand
Spain	127,639	Rising	New plantations offset regional shortfalls
Iran	90,000–110,000	Tight	Quality/price premium, pest issues
Australia	140,000	Normal	Stable supply; strong China links
Italy	18,000+	Stable	Niche, mainly domestic/export blend

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Spot buyers: Consider securing supplies before late summer for Spanish origins; short-term supply risk if further adverse weather strikes.
• Importers: Watch U.S. shipment pace and possible ocean freight cost shifts.
• Producers: Prioritise contracts with price adjustment clauses to hedge for climate impacts and currency moves.
• Industrial users: Continue to monitor for potential late-season quality downgrades from Spain; diversify origins where feasible.
• Speculators: Sideways-to-soft bias; monitor June/July weather in Spain and the US for late surprises.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange / Origin	Type	Current Price (€/kg)	Forecast (€/kg)	Sentiment
Washington D.C. (US)	Carmel SSR 18/20	6.80	6.75–6.80	Stable/Soft
Madrid (ES)	Marcona 12/14	6.70	6.65–6.75	Slightly Soft
Tehran (IR)	Mamra, grade A	11.23	11.10–11.30	Firm