Rapeseed Market Holds Steady Amid Seasonal Shifts: Price Stability and Weather Risks Shape the Outlook

The rapeseed market enters the peak of summer 2025 with relative price stability observed on both Euronext (MATIF) and ICE Canada, despite lingering uncertainty about yield prospects across Europe and Canada. The August MATIF contract closed unchanged at €477.00/t, while ICE Canola exhibited marginal declines, reflecting the delicate balance of global supply and demand. Meanwhile, the physical cash market offers from key Black Sea exporters signal modest price increases—Ukrainian FCA Odesa and Kyiv values have inched up 0.02 €/kg over the past week—while French FOB Paris offers remain steady, suggesting that buyers are monitoring output quality and harvest logistics. With speculative positioning subdued and open interest robust on European contracts, participants are watching for weather-driven volatility in early summer.

The latest USDA and European crop forecasts indicate a modest recovery in area but warn of potential lower oil content if heat and dryness persist during pod filling. Climatic patterns remain the primary wild card, as Ukrainian and EU yields survive on a knife’s edge, with scattered storms and heatwaves forecasted for the next few days. Against this backdrop, trade flows out of Ukraine remain robust, helping to cap major rallies, while the biofuel policy debate across the EU continues to influence long-term demand. For traders, processors, and end-users alike, near-term stability belies an underlying sensitivity to harvest results and evolving weather risks.

📈 Market Prices

Exchange/Origin	Contract/Type	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext MATIF	Aug 25	€477.00/t	0.00 (0.0%)	Neutral
Euronext MATIF	Nov 25	€488.50/t	0.00 (0.0%)	Neutral
ICE Canada	Jul 25	697.00 CAD/t	-0.80 (-0.11%)	Slightly Bearish
ICE Canada	Nov 25	711.50 CAD/t	-3.10 (-0.44%)	Slightly Bearish
Physical, Ukraine Odesa	FCA, 42% oil	€0.53/kg	+0.02 (+3.9%)	Slightly Bullish
Physical, Ukraine Kyiv	FCA, 42% oil	€0.51/kg	+0.02 (+4.1%)	Slightly Bullish
Physical, France Paris	FOB	€0.54/kg	0.00 (0%)	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA & EU Crop Reports: Indicate steady or marginally higher planted area in the EU, but anticipated yields may be pressured by June-July heatwaves. Ukraine output holding, but quality (oil content) at risk.
• Global Stocks: Inventories remain tight after recent years’ poor crops, keeping the market sensitive to weather events.
• Biofuel Demand: EU and Asian biofuel regulations are supporting structural demand, but policy debates may cap additional gains.
• Speculative Activity: Managed money positions are neutral, with open interest robust on key MATIF contracts.
• Trade Flows: Black Sea exports are consistent; logistical bottlenecks are minimal at present, supporting a stable supply into the EU and MENA.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production (2025/26 f’cst):
  • EU: 19.5–19.8 Mt (+1.7% y/y).
  • Ukraine: 4.0–4.2 Mt, stable y/y.
  • Canada (Canola): 17.8–18.0 Mt, slight recovery after 2024’s heat damage.
• Stocks: Low by historical standards, with destocking in China and the EU continuing.
• Import/Export: Ukraine and Canada remain dominant shippers, the EU net importer to cover the demand gap.

Country/Region	2025/26 Production (Mt)	2025/26 Stocks (Mt)	Import/Export Balance
EU	19.8	1.3	~4 Mt Net Import
Ukraine	4.1	0.4	~3.2 Mt Export
Canada	18.0	2.0	~8 Mt Export
China	Not significant	0.9	~5 Mt Import

☀️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• EU: Western and Central Europe are facing alternating heat spells and thunderstorms; pod-filling may be hurt if further high temperatures prevail in early July. France and Germany risk lower oil content and smaller seeds.
• Ukraine: Rainfall remains adequate, but rising heat stress in southern/central regions could trim yield potential. Harvest will begin shortly.
• Canada: Prairie weather has stabilised after a dry June; timely rains forecast for Saskatchewan and Manitoba should limit further crop losses, though subsoil moisture deficits persist.

Forecast for next 7 days: Above-average temperatures expected for the EU and Ukraine, with local storms. Canada is to see normalising temperatures and scattered precipitation.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Consider covering near-term needs as weather risk for the EU/Ukraine harvests could trigger price jumps, especially for high oil-content lots.
• Sellers (producers): Take advantage of seasonally high basis and steady cash offers, but consider holding if early harvest results are below expectations.
• Traders: Volatility likely to rise with June-July weather; look for breakouts if adverse weather persists or if Black Sea exports are disrupted.
• End-users: Monitor quality in both Ukrainian and EU new crop supplies, verifying oil content ahead of bulk purchases.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

 

Market	Current	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days	Direction
MATIF Aug 25	€477.00/t	€477.50	€478.00	€478.50	Up (Weather risk)
ICE Jul 25	697.00 CAD/t	698.00	699.00	700.00	Up (Stabilising prairies)
UA FCA Odesa	€0.53/kg	€0.53	€0.54	€0.54	Flat/Up
FR FOB Paris	€0.54/kg	€0.54	€0.54	€0.54	Stable