The Cardamom market is currently experiencing significant upward momentum, powered by tight supply conditions, solid demand, and persistent speculation about declining production levels in major growing regions. Over the past week, prices have soared in Delhi’s spice markets, with average quality big cardamom jumping by $17.55 per kg to the $94.15–$99.30 range, while premium lots are fetching up to $117.80 per kg. Traders and stockists are actively participating, capitalizing on each price upturn for profit, and exporters—particularly from South India—are underpinning demand.
The lack of substantial new arrivals has helped maintain a bullish tone, as poor weather in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh reduces crop yield forecasts and tightens overall market availability. This environment is encouraging traders to hold on to stocks, anticipating further gains. However, with prices now at elevated levels, any further surge could prompt more cautious buying behaviors and possible short-term corrections. Market participants are watching closely as weather impacts, currency fluctuations, and global demand/supply balances continue to play crucial roles in the market’s development in the weeks ahead.
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Cardamom powder
FOB 25.41 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 18.48 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 16.67 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices at a Glance
| Product | Type | Organic | Origin | Delivery (FOB) | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (EUR) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom powder | N/A | Yes | IN, New Delhi | FOB | 25.30 | -0.06 | Firm/Bullish |
| Cardamom whole | Green 7.5-8 mm | Yes | IN, New Delhi | FOB | 18.40 | -0.06 | Firm/Bullish |
| Cardamom whole | Green 6.0-6.5 mm | Yes | IN, New Delhi | FOB | 16.60 | -0.05 | Stable/Firm |
| Cardamom whole | Green, 8 mm | No | IN, New Delhi | FOB | 24.76 | +0.09 | Firm/Bullish |
| Cardamom whole | Green 7–7.2 mm | No | IN, New Delhi | FOB | 22.51 | +0.07 | Firm/Bullish |
| Cardamom whole | Green 7.5 mm | No | IN, New Delhi | FOB | 24.04 | +0.09 | Firm/Bullish |
| Cardamom whole | Green 6.5–6.8 mm | No | IN, New Delhi | FOB | 21.33 | +0.03 | Firm/Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply constraints: Primary production states (Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh) report sharply reduced output due to drought and erratic rainfall.
- No significant new arrivals: Tight pipeline keeps inventories low and puts upward pressure on spot and forward prices.
- Demand: Robust demand across India, with strong buying from South Indian blenders and exporters targeting Gulf/Middle East markets.
📊 Fundamentals
- Speculation: Active speculative buying drives short-term price spikes as traders anticipate further supply tightening.
- Quality arrivals: Higher prices for superior grades and premium lots due to reduced overall availability.
- Inventory: Traders are hoarding stocks in anticipation of further gains, expecting persistent tightness through the season.
- Market reactions: Sudden upward moves are met with periodic profit-taking and cautious buying at higher price levels.
☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Current conditions: Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh have reported below-average rainfall over the past month, reducing crop establishment and yield potential.
- Forecast (next 10 days): Mostly dry conditions expected, with only isolated thunderstorms providing partial relief; overall pattern remains unfavorable for near-term crop recovery.
- Impact: Ongoing weather stress will likely further cut this season’s output, keeping price sentiment bullish.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Output (est., tons) | Global Share (%) | Stock Change YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 18,000 | ~65 | -12% |
| Guatemala | 6,200 | ~20 | -2% |
| Nepal | 3,000 | ~8 | -5% |
| Others | 1,800 | ~7 | -3% |
- India: Dominant supply source; acute weather-driven fall in output intensifies global tightness.
- Guatemala: Stable to mildly lower; no large new volumes expected in near term.
- Nepal & Others: Small but steady contributors; also impacted by Asian monsoon conditions.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term bias remains strongly bullish amid persistent supply worries and robust exporter demand.
- Traders and stockists should maintain a cautious approach at elevated price levels; trailing stop-losses recommended.
- Exporters are advised to cover near-term requirements proactively, as further supply disruptions could trigger additional price surges.
- End-users: Consider phased buying and inventory planning for the next 1–2 months to hedge against volatility.
- Monitor arrivals in producing regions and real-time weather forecasts to adjust strategies quickly.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast (EUR/kg) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom powder | New Delhi (FOB) | 25.30 | 25.40–25.60 | ⬆️ |
| Cardamom whole, green 7.5-8 mm | New Delhi (FOB) | 18.40 | 18.60–18.90 | ⬆️ |
| Cardamom whole, green 6.0-6.5 mm | New Delhi (FOB) | 16.60 | 16.70–16.90 | ⬆️ |
Price direction: Upward bias on continued tight supply and robust demand expectations.
