Cardamom Market Update: Prices Steady Amid Fading Demand and Weather Uncertainty

The cardamom market has entered a subdued phase following the high retail demand experienced during the Eid festival season in key North Indian markets. With the festive rush behind, wholesale buying has slowed as traders adopt a cautious approach, reluctant to commit to large volumes. Current price ranges for medium-quality cardamom hover between $18 to $24 per kilogram, but a decisive upside remains elusive as both export and domestic demand remain less than robust.

Southern growing regions, particularly Bodinayakanur and Kumily, are witnessing sluggish sales, largely because of uncertain export interest. Even though arrivals have been consistent – with recent sessions reporting volumes of 1550-1600 bags – international buyers are hesitant. Top-quality lots are rare, and mid-grade supplies dominate, further weighing on sentiment. Meanwhile, in Kerala’s key Idukki region, sporadic monsoon rains have not only delayed harvests but also disrupted the steady inflow of new stock to markets.

Dealers in the region are avoiding major purchases until clearer price signals and demand improvements emerge. As it stands, the market outlook in the short term points to rangebound pricing, with possible limited upside unless export demand shows a substantial uptick or weather shocks significantly reduce supply. Market participants should closely watch weather patterns and global buying trends for the next directional move in cardamom pricing.

📈 Prices

Product	Type/Size	Purity	Organic	Location (FOB)	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date	Sentiment	Offer Link
Cardamom whole	green, 7.5-8 mm	–	Yes	New Delhi, IN	18.48	18.40	2025-07-19	Stable/Soft	Offer
Cardamom powder	–	–	Yes	New Delhi, IN	25.41	25.30	2025-07-19	Stable/Soft	Offer
Cardamom whole	green 6.0-6.5 mm	99%	Yes	New Delhi, IN	16.67	16.60	2025-07-19	Stable/Soft	Offer
Cardamom whole	green, 8 mm	–	No	New Delhi, IN	24.87	24.76	2025-07-19	Stable	Offer
Cardamom whole	green 7-7.2 mm	–	No	New Delhi, IN	22.61	22.51	2025-07-19	Stable	Offer
Cardamom whole	green 7.5 mm	–	No	New Delhi, IN	24.15	24.15	2025-07-19	Stable	Offer
Cardamom whole	green 6.5-6.8 mm	–	No	New Delhi, IN	21.43	21.33	2025-07-19	Stable	Offer

🌍 Supply & Demand

• North Indian markets: Post-Eid demand decline; wholesalers switching to hand-to-mouth buying.
• South Indian markets (Bodinayakanur, Kumily): Sluggish auction sales, weak export demand, steady but unspectacular arrivals (1550-1600 bags).
• Global demand: No significant recovery from international buyers; key factor for next price leg.
• Quality: Shortfall in premium lots; mid-quality grades dominate current market flows.

📊 Fundamentals

• Weather: Sporadic monsoon rains in Kerala’s Idukki region are delaying harvest and disrupting supply flows.
• Dealer behavior: Major buyers remain cautious due to price instability and lack of export orders.
• Speculative activity: No evidence of significant stockpiling or aggressive positions; trade is conservative.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Kerala (Idukki): Continued intermittent rains forecasted over the next few days may further delay the main harvest. This could restrict arrivals and moderately support prices, but only if yields are significantly hampered.
• Tamil Nadu (Bodinayakanur, Kumily): Mild weather, but market focus remains on global demand, not local conditions.
• Other producing states: Neutral outlook, no major weather disturbances anticipated.

🌏 Production & Stock – Global Comparison

Country	2024/25 Est. Production (tonnes)	2023/24 Est. Stock (tonnes)	Comments
India	22,000	4,000	Largest producer and exporter; harvest currently impacted by weather.
Guatemala	36,000	7,500	World’s #1 exporter; export supply currently strong.
Sri Lanka	5,100	700	Stable supply, but most output for regional consumption.
UAE/Saudi Arabia	–	–	Key importing hubs; watch for demand signals in Q3.

📌 Trading Outlook & Key Recommendations

• Short term: Expect stable-to-soft pricing in absence of export revival or weather shocks.
• Buyers: Favor purchasing on dips; prioritize mid and large-size lots if quality is consistent.
• Sellers: Cautious; hold top-quality lots for potential premium bids if export demand revives post-monsoon.
• Exporters: Monitor Middle East buying interests; prepare for possible demand upturn late in Q3.
• Avoid over-stocking until weather and export trends clarify market direction.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Market	Current Price Range (EUR/kg)	Forecast (Next 3 Days)	Drivers
New Delhi (FOB)	16.67–25.41	Stable/Soft, minor downside bias	Weak export, cautious trade
Bodinayakanur Auction	€17.00–24.00*	Flat/steady	No export uptick, normal arrivals
Idukki, Kerala	€18.00–22.50 *	Stable, watch for weather disruptions	Harvest delays, firm in case of yield losses

*Estimated conversion