Fennel Market: Tight Acreage and Steady Demand Keep Prices Firm

This season, the global fennel market stands at a fascinating crossroads—driven by tightened supply, steady export interest, and resolute local demand. Over the past two years, growers have faced financial disincentives amid prolonged periods of subdued prices, compelling many to rethink their readiness to plant fennel, especially for the critical winter (Rabi) crop. As a result, acreage, particularly in India’s leading fennel-producing regions like Banaskantha and Patan, has dropped, and market observers are keenly watching for its impact. Despite a marginal uptick in market arrivals, spot prices continue to hover within established ranges, defying sharp volatility and instead exhibiting controlled day-to-day movement. At mandis like Unjha and Sidhpur, and processing markets including Mehsana, a strong price correlation persists between quality and grade.

Traders and farmers alike are eyeing the next few weeks with caution: should arrivals decelerate, a moderate upward swing in prices seems likely. Supporting these prospects are stable, even firm, demand cues from exporters and domestic processors—even as production faces a fundamental slide. The forward-looking outlook is one of cautious optimism: the market maintains a delicate balance, with strategic growers and traders making crucial decisions for the next sowing cycle on the basis of these nuanced signals. With uncertain weather and potential supply restrictions looming, any shift in arrivals or demand could quickly recalibrate the market’s current equilibrium.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Market/Location	Product	Grade/Purity	Price Range (USD/kg)	Sentiment
Unjha	Fennel (Whole)	Regular/Top	$2.40 – $3.60	Stable-to-Firm
Sidhpur	Fennel (Whole)	Regular	$2.40 – $3.00	Steady
Mehsana	Fennel (Whole)	All Grades	$2.16 – $2.64	Stable

 

Product	Grade	Organic	Origin	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Last Change	Update Date
Fennel	Powder	Yes	India	2.71	0	2025-07-19
Fennel	Whole	Yes	India	2.60	0	2025-07-19
Fennel seeds	Grade A (99%)	No	India	1.17	0	2025-07-19
Fennel seeds	Grade A (98%)	No	India	0.91	0	2025-07-19
Fennel seeds	99% Purity	No	India	1.03	0	2025-07-19
Fennel seeds	98% Purity	No	India	0.95	0	2025-07-19

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Reduced Acreage: Following poor returns in the last two years, notable acreage reduction reported in Banaskantha, Patan, and adjacent regions.
• Arrivals: Slight increase in recent market arrivals, but the overall trend points to significantly lower output this season.
• Demand: Remains steady across export (mainly Middle East, South East Asia) and domestic spice processor segments.
• Substitution: Some growers shifting to alternative crops, further tightening fennel’s medium-term supply outlook.

📊 Fundamental Market Drivers

• Flat-to-firm price momentum due to sharply lower crop expectations.
• No dramatic change in demand: Consistent purchasing by spice processors and bulk traders; retail demand solid.
• Stock position: Inventory levels are modest to low amid tight procurement from mandis, supporting prices.
• Speculative activity: Most activity is physical market-driven; futures not a major factor.
• Historical comparison: Previous reports indicated a similar pattern of range-bound market but with slightly better arrivals earlier in the year.

⛅ Weather Outlook for Key Indian Growing Regions

• Banaskantha, Patan, North Gujarat: Seasonal forecasts suggest near-normal rainfall with isolated above-normal temperature spells. This may stress late-sown fennel crops, but the overall weather risk is modest for the remainder of the current cycle.
• Any intense, unseasonal rains could disrupt marketable quality and extend drying times, impacting arrivals and farmgate prices in August.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• India: World’s leading producer, but 2024/25 acreage and output expected 10–15% lower than last season.
• Egypt & Turkey: Continue to serve key export markets; Egypt’s mild winter has favored stable production, while Turkey’s dry spring trimmed expectations marginally.
• Importers: UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Southeast Asia importing steadily, drawing attention to India’s reduced offer volumes.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Avoid aggressive selling; spot supply is likely to tighten from late July onward.
• Traders should monitor weather and arrivals closely—further reduction could trigger a short-term rally.
• Exporters: Maintain engagement with regular buyers; any surprise dip in Indian output may push up international offers.
• Processors: Lock in procurement at current levels, especially for high-quality lots.
• Farmers: Monitor daily price cues and market arrivals—higher prices may return if acreage shrinkage translates to actual shortfall in mandis.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Product/Grade	Forecast Price Range (USD/kg)	Sentiment
Unjha	Whole, Regular	2.45 – 3.10	Steady to Slightly Firm
Unjha	Whole, Top	3.50 – 3.75	Firm
Sidhpur	Whole, Regular	2.40 – 3.05	Stable
Mehsana	Whole, All Grades	2.18 – 2.70	Stable