The cardamom market is currently navigating a delicate balance between improved production and lackluster demand, resulting in subdued price momentum despite earlier worries about limited early arrivals. This season has seen a marked improvement in weather conditions across the primary growing areas of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, India, fostering robust crop development. As a result, traders and wholesalers report that supply volumes are up significantly from last year. However, the anticipated surge in retail purchasing has not materialized; buyers are displaying notable caution, engaging only in limited and need-based procurement. This restrained approach is compounded by the muted appetite of domestic spice processors and export buyers—both crucial segments that generally underpin price rallies in peak seasons.
On the price front, top-quality small cardamom is quoted in the $27–$28 per kg range, with medium and lower grades fetching $25–$27 and $21–$23 per kg, respectively. In the European market, recent offers from New Delhi for premium non-organic cardamom whole (8 mm) stand at €24.75/kg FOB, while organic grades are a step lower in price, reflecting a market that rewards size and appearance but is also price-sensitive due to ample availability. The general market sentiment remains cautious: wholesalers highlight the prevailing moderate daily arrivals and robust inventory, underlining that further sharp increases in price appear unlikely in the short term. Instead, most players are preparing for a broader arrival window from September to October, which could introduce further downward price pressure unless demand stages a strong rebound.
Compounding the weak tone is the tepid export environment. International buyers are turning to Guatemala and other competitive origins as Indian prices seek equilibrium following recent gains. Unless domestic or export demand accelerates, the market will likely remain range-bound with a mild downside risk through the next quarter.
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Cardamom whole
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FOB 24.75 €/kg
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📈 Prices: Latest Cardamom Market Snapshot
| Product | Specification | Origin | Organic | Latest Price (EUR/kg, FOB) | Previous Price | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm | IN | No | 24.75 | 24.67 | +0.32% | Cautious / Range-bound |
| Cardamom whole | green 7.5 mm | IN | No | 24.00 | 23.95 | +0.21% | Cautious |
| Cardamom whole | green,7.5-8 mm | IN | Yes | 18.40 | 18.33 | +0.38% | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | green 7-7.2 mm | IN | No | 22.50 | 22.42 | +0.36% | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.5-6.8 mm | IN | No | 21.53 | 21.25 | +1.32% | Soft |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm | IN | Yes | 16.60 | 16.53 | +0.42% | Soft |
| Cardamom powder | – | IN | Yes | 25.30 | 25.20 | +0.40% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Production: Improved rainfall in Kerala and Tamil Nadu has resulted in healthy crop development and higher output forecasts for 2025.
- Inventory: Wholesalers report moderate daily arrivals but ample available stocks, keeping upward price potential limited.
- Demand: Retail and processor demand remains soft, as buyers delay bigger procurement decisions amid expectations of further price easing.
- Exports: Global demand, especially from Middle East and Southeast Asia, has been dampened by competition from Guatemala, the other key supplier.
- Speculation: Traders are avoiding aggressive stocking, anticipating increased arrivals during the September–October peak.
📊 Fundamentals and Global Comparison
| Country | 2024-25 Output Estimate (t) | Yearly Change (%) | Stocks (t) | Domestic Demand | Export Competitiveness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 24,000 | +7% | High | Soft | Moderate |
| Guatemala | 36,000 | Stable | Normal | Steady | Strong |
| Others (Sri Lanka, Tanzania) | ~9,000 | Flat | Unknown | Mild | Moderate |
☀️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- Kerala & Tamil Nadu: Recent IMD reports indicate consistent rainfall in Idukki and adjoining cardamom-producing districts, supporting late-stage crop development. No major weather disturbances are forecast for the next 10 days.
- Potential Impact: Ongoing good moisture will facilitate sustained arrivals and may enable a slightly higher-than-average yield, keeping pressure on prices if demand remains weak.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term price rallies are unlikely amid ample supply and subdued demand.
- Buyers are advised to procure in tranches, avoiding aggressive inventory build-up until clearer demand signals emerge.
- Exporters should closely monitor price trends in Guatemala; price corrections may offer renewed export opportunities if differentials narrow.
- Domestic processors and retailers can delay bulk buying: a wider arrival season in September–October could unlock better buying conditions.
- Monitor inventory figures and weather updates for any surprise supply shocks.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB New Delhi)
| Date | 8 mm (non-organic) | 7.5 mm (non-organic) | 6–6.5 mm (organic) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-03 | 24.70 EUR/kg | 23.95 EUR/kg | 16.58 EUR/kg |
| 2025-08-04 | 24.65 EUR/kg | 23.90 EUR/kg | 16.56 EUR/kg |
| 2025-08-05 | 24.65 EUR/kg | 23.90 EUR/kg | 16.55 EUR/kg |
Range-bound trends expected to persist, with only modest softening as new arrivals pick up steam later in August.
