The large cardamom market is currently navigating an intriguing balance between improved production prospects and subdued demand across key markets in India. As the first harvest is expected to begin in the latter half of August, optimism about a bigger crop this season—particularly in Sikkim and parts of Nepal—contrasts with the immediate realities of weak buying interest and logistical disruptions caused by heavy rainfall. Although crop conditions are better than a year ago and production for the 2025–26 season is projected to climb from last year’s 3,032 tons to 3,504 tons, excessive rainfall has curbed market arrivals, especially from Sikkim, India’s top producer. Prices have slipped slightly compared to last month due to slow demand and logistical hurdles. Local auction rates reflect a modest downward trend, with the top-quality product fetching roughly $18.37 per kg. Unless there is an unexpected uptick in export orders—particularly from the Gulf—or a domestic demand surge, the market is likely to remain rangebound in the coming weeks. With export activity still muted and weather disruptions persisting, traders advise a cautious outlook for buyers and sellers alike.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 18.01 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 16.25 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green, 8 mm
FOB 24.22 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Type | Origin | Organic | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Change | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom whole | green, 7.5-8 mm | IN | Yes | New Delhi | 18.01 | 18.40 | -0.39 | 2025-08-09 |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm | IN | Yes | New Delhi | 16.25 | 16.60 | -0.35 | 2025-08-09 |
| Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm | IN | No | New Delhi | 24.22 | 24.75 | -0.53 | 2025-08-09 |
| Cardamom whole | green 7-7.2 mm | IN | No | New Delhi | 22.02 | 22.50 | -0.48 | 2025-08-09 |
| Cardamom whole | green 7.5 mm | IN | No | New Delhi | 23.49 | 24.00 | -0.51 | 2025-08-09 |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.5-6.8 mm | IN | No | New Delhi | 21.07 | 21.53 | -0.46 | 2025-08-09 |
| Cardamom powder | – | IN | Yes | New Delhi | 24.76 | 25.30 | -0.54 | 2025-08-09 |
Market Sentiment: Slightly bearish to neutral; recent price declines reflect weak internal and external demand, although optimism persists regarding the upcoming harvest size.
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Production Outlook: 2025–26 production estimated at 3,504 tons (vs. 3,032 tons previously), mainly from Sikkim (approx. 3,032 tons).
- Harvest Timing: Main harvest to begin in late August; crop outlook better than last year in Sikkim and Nepal.
- Arrivals & Logistics: Heavy monsoon rains restrict market arrivals and slow regional trade activity.
- Demand: Persistently weak in both north and south Indian markets, with export demand yet to improve materially.
- Exports: Shipments from India/Nepal last quarter estimated at just over 214.84 tons—well below historical averages.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Pricing Drivers: Price action dictated by fresh arrivals during harvest; current year dampened by poor demand and weather issues.
- Importers: Gulf States remain key export markets; any spike in Gulf buying could firm prices quickly.
- Speculator Positioning: Low, as liquidity and speculative flows remain muted in the absence of demand triggers.
- Historical Comparison: Last year’s late season saw prices firm due to supply tightness; current larger crop expected to cap upside unless demand surprises emerge.
🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook
- Current Weather: Widespread heavy rainfall in Sikkim and key Nepalese growing areas has disrupted both harvesting operations and transport networks.
- Short-Term Outlook: Weather models suggest continued monsoon activity over the next 7-10 days, potentially delaying arrivals and keeping supply at bay temporarily.
- Crop Impact: No major reports of crop damage; the weather is more a logistical issue, which could ease later in August, allowing backlog supply to enter the market.
🌏 Production & Stocks by Country
| Country | 2024–25 Production (tons) | 2025–26 Est. Production (tons) | Export Share | Stocks/Inventory Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India (Sikkim) | 3,032 | 3,032+ | High | Rebuilding due to last season’s depletion |
| Nepal | ~500* | ~472* | Medium | Steady, slight year-on-year increase |
| Gulf States | n/a | n/a | Major Importer | Low, reliant on fresh imports |
*Approximate figures. Precise official data may vary.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Exporters: Keep offers flexible, monitor Gulf demand closely, and be prepared for potential September spot demand spike post-monsoon.
- For Buyers: Consider gradual procurement; short-term dips may offer opportunity, but major price falls unlikely unless demand plunges.
- For Traders: Watch Sikkim supply normalization and monitor weather for any further transport delays.
- Overall: Sideways trading in a narrow band likely; volatility could rise should export orders revive or logistics improve unexpectedly.
📆 3-Day Price Forecast
| Date | Exchange/Market | Grade | Forecasted Price (EUR/kg) | Market Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-10 | New Delhi Auction | Top Quality | 18.00 – 18.50 | Stable |
| 2025-08-11 | New Delhi Auction | Medium Grade | 16.00 – 16.75 | Stable |
| 2025-08-12 | New Delhi Auction | All Grades | No significant change | Stable/Narrow range |
Short-term trend: High arrivals delayed by rain; prices to remain steady in a narrow band as supply and demand forces remain in equilibrium.
