The global fennel market continues to face a period of marked uncertainty as both supply and demand dynamics remain weak. Over the past two weeks, arrivals of fennel—locally known as variyali—at the key Unjha APMC in India have fallen sharply, hitting just 18,500 bags today and underscoring the seasonal pressure following a diminished Kharif and summer crop. This scenario is largely the result of erratic weather conditions and reduced acreage, which together have contributed to a significant year-over-year production decline. Traders and analysts note that farmers are increasingly holding back stocks in anticipation of a potential price rebound, further tightening market arrivals.
Despite the lower offering, demand from both domestic users and export buyers—including spice extractors and bulk traders—remains sluggish. Notably, the major spice oil industry has trimmed its offtake, exacerbating the tepid buying interest. As a consequence, spot market prices have failed to move decisively higher, with most quotes remaining range-bound. Market participants do not expect a significant price uptick in the near term unless substantial export demand emerges or festive season buying replaces the current lull. The balance of supply and demand, coupled with continued producer caution, suggests that market volatility could increase if either variable shifts meaningfully. Overall, the coming weeks are likely to be characterized by tight arrivals, tentative trading, and a wait-and-see attitude among key stakeholders.
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Fennel
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FOB 0.89 €/kg
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📈 Price Snapshot: Key Exchanges and Market Sentiment
Product | Type | Purity | Organic | Origin | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Update Date | Sentiment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fennel | Whole | – | Yes | IN | New Delhi | 2.54 | 2.54 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
Fennel | Powder | – | Yes | IN | New Delhi | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
Fennel seeds | Grade-A | 99% | No | IN | New Delhi | 1.15 | 1.15 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
Fennel seeds | Grade-A | 98% | No | IN | New Delhi | 0.89 | 0.89 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
Fennel seeds | – | 99% | No | IN | New Delhi | 1.02 | 1.02 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
Fennel seeds | – | 98% | No | IN | New Delhi | 0.93 | 0.93 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
- Unjha APMC (IN, USD): $33.60–$39.60/20kg (Avg. $1,680–$1,980/MT). Premium Singapore quality: $38.40–$43.20/20kg. Low grade: $30.00–$36.00/20kg.
🌍 Supply & Demand: Tight Arrivals Amid Weak Offtake
- Arrivals at Unjha hub continue to decline, with 18,500 bags reported—a significant week-on-week drop.
- Farmers are withholding stocks, tightening market offerings and supporting a stable to mildly firm undertone despite muted trade.
- Spice oil industry and export sector have reduced purchases, amplifying slow market movement.
- Kharif and summer production is notably below normal due to adverse weather and lower planted acreage.
📊 Market Fundamentals: Global Overview
- India remains the world’s leading fennel producer and exporter, with Unjha serving as the barometer for trade sentiment.
- Global inventory levels are being drawn down as Indian arrivals slow, but absence of robust international demand has tempered price support.
- Speculative activity is subdued: traders are ‘on watch’ for any export order influx or sudden domestic festival spikes.
- Singapore and EU markets are closely tracking Indian price quotes.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Recent erratic rainfall in key Indian growing regions (Gujarat, Rajasthan) has contributed to reduced yields.
- Latest regional forecast calls for mild to moderate rainfall with above-normal temperatures, which may slightly help sowing for late crop but is too late for current arrivals.
- No immediate weather threats for stored stocks, but future output could depend on timely and consistent monsoon patterns.
🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison
Country | Production (est. 2024, MT) | 2023 Stocks (MT) | 2024 Trend |
---|---|---|---|
India | 150,000 | 35,000 | Down |
Egypt | 26,000 | 8,000 | Stable |
China | 18,000 | 5,200 | Stable |
Turkey | 11,500 | 2,700 | Up |
Others | ~12,000 | 3,000 | Flat |
- India’s output decline is the main driver for tightening global stocks. Buyers increasingly turn to Egypt and Turkey for alternative supply, but not at scale.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect fennel prices to stay range-bound in the short term barring a significant export or festival-driven demand impulse.
- Bulk buyers and processors should monitor festival demand windows for potential price spikes.
- Farmers holding stock may see advantage if festive demand materializes; otherwise, warehousing risk rises as harvest season approaches.
- Exporters should watch for currency fluctuations and potential order flows from Middle East and South East Asia.
- Short-term hedging is advised for processors to lock in input costs given still-low prices.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB New Delhi, EUR/kg)
Product | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|
Fennel Whole (Organic) | 2.54 | 2.54 | 2.54 | Stable |
Fennel seeds (Grade A, 99%) | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | Stable |
Fennel seeds (Grade A, 98%) | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.89 | Stable |
- Price momentum is neutral with little risk of sharp moves barring exogenous demand shocks.