The small cardamom market is currently navigating through a subdued phase, with prices showing resilience but little upward momentum. After a recent decline, rates have stabilized at approximately USD 30.60 per kilogram, reflecting a marginal decrease of just USD 0.60 per kilogram—insufficient to draw significant new buyers into the market. This lack of spark has kept sentiment cautious among both producers and traders, especially as auction activity remains steady but unremarkable.
At recent auctions, 104,858 kg of cardamom changed hands, with almost all stock sold, yet average-quality lots fetched only around USD 29.20/kg, while premium grades barely held at USD 30.60/kg. Weather uncertainties and muted export orders further cloud the near-term prospects; unless domestic or overseas demand picks up decisively, the market seems destined for continued consolidation rather than a sharp rally. Analysts are watching closely for shifts in growing conditions and harvest flows, both of which could tilt the balance either way. In this context, market participants are advised to remain nimble and alert to developments in both the supply chain and broader global spice demand trends.
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Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
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green 6.0-6.5 mm
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Cardamom whole
green, 8 mm
FOB 24.17 €/kg
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📈 Prices at a Glance
| Product | Type & Size | Origin | Location | Organic | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom whole | green, 7.5-8 mm | India | New Delhi | Yes | 17.96 | 18.07 | -0.11 | Weak/Cautious |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm, 99% purity | India | New Delhi | Yes | 16.20 | 16.30 | -0.10 | Weak |
| Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm | India | New Delhi | No | 24.17 | 24.31 | -0.14 | Soft |
| Cardamom whole | green, 7-7.2 mm | India | New Delhi | No | 21.95 | 22.09 | -0.14 | Weak |
| Cardamom whole | green, 7.5 mm | India | New Delhi | No | 23.37 | 23.51 | -0.14 | Cautious |
| Cardamom whole | green, 6.5-6.8 mm | India | New Delhi | No | 21.01 | 21.14 | -0.13 | Cautious |
| Cardamom powder | – | India | New Delhi | Yes | 24.70 | 24.85 | -0.15 | Soft |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Recent auctions: 104,858 kg offered, 95% sold, but buyers remain price-sensitive.
- Premium cardamom: Holds a limited price premium at around USD 30.60/kg, showing market fatigue.
- Current buying activity: Marginal price dips have not led to stronger demand, reflecting consumer and trader caution.
- Domestic consumption: Remains moderate, with no sign of a festival-driven uplift yet.
- Export demand: Flat to weak, particularly from traditional buyers in the Middle East and Europe.
📊 Fundamentals & Historic Comparison
- Market sentiment is similar to the last report, with continued sluggishness and minimal volatility.
- Recent trends: Price stabilization after minor correction; last cycle also saw weak buying until an uptick in export orders, which has yet to materialize this time.
- Production: Supplies are adequate, with sufficient carryover stock in key trading hubs (notably, New Delhi).
- Speculative positioning: Low, reflecting lack of catalysts and underlying macroeconomic uncertainty.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Harvest Prospects
- Indian growing regions (Kerala, Tamil Nadu): Recent rainfall slightly above average, but not excessive—benefiting late-stage pod development.
- Weather forecast: Next 3 days see a mix of sunshine and scattered showers, likely stabilizing yields but not causing major shifts in supply volume.
- No extreme events anticipated, keeping short-term supply risk low; watch for disease risk if humidity spikes.
🌏 Key Global Production & Inventory Snapshot
| Country | 2023/24 Est. Production (‘000 tons) | Approx. Ending Stocks (‘000 tons) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 25 | 5 | Stable, strong domestic use |
| Guatemala | 36 | 8 | Largest exporter globally |
| Sri Lanka | 6 | 1 | Regional supplier; stable market |
| UAE (importer) | — | NA | Major re-export hub |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔎 Buyers: Remain patient; further downward price risk possible if festival demand stays soft.
- 📉 Sellers: Consider selling on rallies as stable supply and weak demand could pressure prices lower.
- ☂️ Risk-watch: Monitor weather in South India—heavy rain or fungal outbreaks could tighten supply unexpectedly.
- 🌐 Exporters: Focus on diversifying end-user bases as Middle East and EU demand remains sluggish.
📅 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Indian Exchange, New Delhi FOB)
| Date | Expected Price Range (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 17.80 – 18.00 | Cautious |
| Day 2 | 17.75 – 17.95 | Weak |
| Day 3 | 17.70 – 17.90 | Soft/lower |
