Rapeseed Market Analysis 2025: India Surges as China’s Top Supplier Amid Tariff Shifts

The global rapeseed market is undergoing a significant transformation in 2025, propelled by shifting trade flows and heightened geopolitical tensions. China, historically reliant on Canada for rapeseed meal, has dramatically altered its import sourcing due to the imposition of anti-dumping duties and steep tariffs on Canadian canola products. As a result, India has rapidly ascended to become China’s largest supplier—a development emblematic of evolving agricultural alliances and exposed vulnerabilities within global supply chains. Meanwhile, Australia’s absence continues to constrain China’s rapeseed market access, pending resolution of phytosanitary barriers. India’s competitive gains have been aided by elevated ethanol blending incentives, which are reducing domestic feedstock consumption and freeing up rapeseed meal for export. Yet despite this supply pivot, China’s overall rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports for 2025/26 remain at multi-year lows, suggesting continued tightness in global availability.

For Europe, prices remain stable but hover near their lowest levels of the year, reflecting subdued global demand and abundant stocks in the Black Sea. Current market sentiment is cautious, with traders keeping a keen eye on Chinese demand signals, weather risks in major producing regions, and fluctuations in alternative protein meal markets.

📈 Prices

Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date	Sentiment
Ukraine	Kyiv	FCA	0.56	0.56	2025-09-22	Stable / Cautious
Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.56	0.56	2025-09-22	Stable / Cautious
France	Paris	FOB	0.55	0.55	2025-09-19	Stable / Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China: 2025/26 rapeseed meal imports forecast at 2.6 MMT, up 400,000 tonnes from prior estimates but at a three-year low due to loss of Canadian and Australian supply.
• India: Exports to China surged, reaching ~100,000 tonnes in July; higher ethanol blending in India is reducing feed use, expanding export capacity.
• Australia: Exports to China remain blocked; negotiations are ongoing.
• European Union & Black Sea: Large stocks and steady Black Sea flows keep EU market well supplied, with limited export opportunities as Asian demand is redirected toward India.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Global production estimates remain flat to slightly down on weaker Canadian/Australian output.
• Inventories: Black Sea and EU stocks stable, but global inventories are tight compared to historic averages.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains net short amid lackluster demand and ample supply from ex-Black Sea ports.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine & Black Sea: Mild autumn weather with sufficient rainfall ensures a strong finish to the 2025 harvest; no immediate yield risk projected.
• Western Europe: Some localized moisture deficits, but otherwise favorable conditions for rapeseed establishment ahead of winter.
• India: Monsoon was adequate, supporting timely fieldwork and setting up for a normal 2025/26 crop cycle.

📉 Global Market Comparison

Country/Region	2025/26 Production (MMT)	Stock Change YoY	Market Note
China	14.0	-3%	Import dependency rising, especially on India
India	10.5	+1%	Exports surging, supported by domestic feed switches
Canada	18.0	-10%	Exports curtailed by Chinese tariffs
EU	20.5	0%	Stable supply, pressured prices

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor ongoing China–Australia trade negotiations, as any breakthrough could rapidly change Asia-Pacific market orientation.
• Expect continued price pressure in the EU and Black Sea ports unless a major weather event materializes in key origins.
• For crushers: Lock in supply at current flat prices; spreads are historically narrow, favoring nearby positions.
• For exporters: Focus on Asian buyers where Indian competition is less prevalent; highlight traceability and quality controls for EU markets.
• Watch speculative fund flows—any change in positioning can drive short-term price volatility.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Trend
Odesa (FCA)	0.56	0.54 – 0.57	Stable/Soft
Kyiv (FCA)	0.56	0.54 – 0.57	Stable/Soft
Paris (FOB)	0.55	0.54 – 0.56	Sideways