Almond Market Firms as California Heads into a Smaller 2026 Crop
Almond prices strengthen on smaller 2026 California crop, lower stocks and steady demand, while water and costs cap upside. Concise market & trading view.
Prices
Industry reports indicate that benchmark California almond prices have rebounded from approximately USD 1.40/lb about 18 months ago to above USD 3.00/lb for certain Nonpareil in-shell grades, reflecting a near-doubling as the market has worked off surplus stocks. This is consistent with recent wholesale indications from U.S. markets, where offerings are described as light and prices firm.
Current kernel offers show a stable to slightly firmer pattern in EUR terms. Recent indications include California Carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22 around EUR 6.55–6.60/kg FAS Washington D.C., and organic Nonpareil 27/30 near EUR 9.20/kg FOB. Spanish product trades in a broad band of roughly EUR 5.5–8.8/kg FOB Madrid depending on variety and size, with premium Marcona and Valencia types at the upper end. Over the past month, quotes have been broadly steady to marginally higher, confirming a consolidating, firm market rather than a spike.
Supply & Demand
California’s 2026 crop is widely seen as slightly smaller than last year, with estimates clustered around 2.5–2.75 billion pounds versus nearly 2.7 billion in 2025. Field reports cite a generally good but not exceptional crop, with heat, rainfall and wind at bloom and early nut development likely trimming yield potential and reducing the chance of a 3‑billion‑pound year. This marks a continued shift away from the oversupply phase that had weighed on prices.
On the demand side, shipment data show robust movement. Monthly shipments have repeatedly exceeded 200 million pounds, with at least one recent month close to 240 million pounds, helping to draw down inventories and improve industry sentiment. Fresh reporting for May 2026 points to shipments in the low‑200‑million‑pound range and modest year‑on‑year growth, underscoring steady global demand as buyers rebuild coverage ahead of new crop. International demand remains particularly important, with Europe and key Asian markets continuing to absorb a large share of California output.
Global competition is currently less intense. Heavy rainfall in Australia has reportedly reduced that country’s exportable almond supply, narrowing alternative origins for importers. In California itself, water remains a structural constraint: groundwater pumping restrictions, higher energy costs and uneven surface water allocations limit some growers’ ability to fully utilize planted acreage. Industry voices warn that, under persistent water limits, some farms may only be able to economically farm roughly 60 out of every 100 acres, reinforcing a medium‑term cap on production growth.
Fundamentals & Weather
Fundamentals entering the 2026 season are notably healthier than in the recent past. Lower carryover stocks, stronger shipments and a smaller expected crop have moved the market closer to balance. This has translated into firmer farm‑gate returns and improved cash flow, though producers still face rising input costs for labor, energy, water and compliance. These cost pressures mean that growers require higher price levels than in previous cycles to maintain profitability.
Weather has been a mixed but overall manageable factor. Bloom and early nut set were exposed to episodes of heat, rain and wind, contributing to a "good, not huge" crop profile. Accumulated heat units since spring have pushed crop development ahead of the usual schedule, and harvest is likely to start earlier than normal in parts of the Central Valley. An earlier harvest could bring new‑crop supply to market sooner, smoothing the transition from old crop but also narrowing the window for late‑season sales of remaining inventories at premium prices.
Short‑term meteorological outlooks for California’s main almond regions point to seasonally warm, mostly dry summer conditions, favorable for kernel fill and pre‑harvest preparations. However, irrigation demand will be high, amplifying the impact of any local water allocation issues. Over the medium term, ongoing regulatory tightening around groundwater usage is expected to continue reshaping orchard investment decisions and could limit expansion, particularly on marginal water districts.
Forecast & Trading Outlook
With a modestly smaller California crop, reduced carryover and solid shipment momentum, the almond market is entering the 2026/27 marketing year on a firmer foundation. Prices are likely to remain supported through the pre‑harvest and early‑harvest window, especially for higher‑quality Nonpareil and well‑screened kernel grades. Upside may be tempered by already‑improved price levels and the potential for demand rationing if values rise too quickly, but structural water and cost pressures argue against a return to the deep lows observed 18 months ago.
- For buyers: Consider layering in forward coverage for Q3–Q4 2026, particularly for premium Nonpareil and Spanish specialty grades, while retaining some flexibility in case of short‑term harvest‑related dips.
- For sellers/growers: Use current firmness to scale up sales on rallies, especially for lower‑spec or off‑sizes, but keep some volume open into early harvest in case weather or logistics issues tighten nearby supply.
- For processors/traders: Focus on origin and quality differentiation (California vs. Spain, organic vs. conventional) and monitor water policy developments closely, as any further tightening could underpin a higher pricing floor into 2027.
Over the next three trading days, EUR‑denominated prices on key wholesale and brokerage platforms are expected to remain firm to slightly higher, with limited downside given tight old‑crop stocks and strong nearby demand. U.S. Carmel kernel indications around EUR 6.5–6.6/kg and organic Nonpareil near EUR 9.2/kg are likely to hold within a narrow range, while Spanish Marcona and Valencia grades should continue to command a premium but show only incremental movement absent a new weather or policy shock.