Almonds steady as Australia gears up for a more global role

Almond prices in key US and Spanish origins remain broadly steady in late June, while market attention increasingly turns to Australia’s expanding role and its upcoming 2026 industry conference. The event’s strong focus on marketing, global demand and technical innovation underlines expectations that Australian supply and branding will matter more in the medium term. The international almond market currently trades in a narrow range, with recent European FOB offers for Spanish kernels mostly between about EUR 5.5–11.5/kg depending on variety and specification, and US Nonpareil and Carmel around EUR 6.5–9.3/kg equivalent. At the same time, Australia is signalling a strategic shift: a three‑day industry conference in October 2026 will concentrate on global demand trends, production practices and marketing, reinforcing its ambition to strengthen its position in both domestic and export markets. The combination of stable spot prices and forward‑looking investment in marketing and agronomy suggests a market that is fundamentally balanced but increasingly competitive on quality, origin and technical performance.

Prices

Recent offers indicate a stable to slightly firm price environment. In the US, almond kernels (Carmel, SSR, 18/20 and 20/22) are quoted around EUR 6.5–6.6/kg FAS equivalent, while organic Nonpareil 27/30 holds near EUR 9.2/kg FOB. Spanish kernels show a broader quality and price spectrum, from roughly EUR 5.5/kg for Guara grades to EUR 8–8.8/kg for Marcona and over EUR 11/kg for organic Nonpareil FOB Madrid.

Week‑on‑week changes across June have been marginal, typically within a EUR 0.05–0.10/kg band, pointing to a market where current supply and demand are largely in balance. External wholesale indicators for European markets confirm this sideways pattern, with only modest adjustments despite seasonal consumption shifts.

Supply & Demand

The forthcoming 2026 Australian Almond Conference (13–15 October) reflects how Australia is positioning itself as a more influential supplier alongside California and Spain. The expanded three‑day format, with a strong opening focus on marketing and global demand, signals industry confidence in continued growth in both traditional markets and emerging destinations such as Asia and the Middle East.

Globally, recent projections point to a relatively balanced supply picture for 2025/26, with modest growth in Spanish output and stable to slightly higher US availability being offset by robust export demand, particularly from Europe and Asia. Australia, meanwhile, has recently surpassed the EUR‑equivalent USD 1.3 billion mark in industry value on the back of strong Chinese demand and the expansion of value‑added products such as almond milk and snack formats.

Within Spain, producer organisations anticipate a roughly 7% year‑on‑year increase in shelled almond production in 2026/27 and a significantly higher crop versus the five‑year average, led by gains in Andalusia. This additional Mediterranean supply provides European buyers with alternatives to Californian origin and helps explain the current stability in FOB Madrid prices despite firm export interest.

Fundamentals & Australian strategic focus

The 2026 Australian Almond Conference is emerging as a key forum for shaping medium‑term fundamentals. The first day’s emphasis on marketing and global demand, including industry and international panels, aims to give participants a clear picture of consumption trends and competitive positioning. New marketing initiatives for the next two years are set to strengthen Australian almonds’ profile in both domestic and export channels, potentially supporting premiums where quality and sustainability can be demonstrated.

Days two and three highlight a strong technical and global orientation. Keynotes from the President of the International Nut Congress and the CEO of the Almond Board of California will bring global consumption and Californian supply dynamics into the discussion, while US researchers will address disease management (Phytophthora, replant disease), root dynamics and irrigation strategies. This focus on agronomy, tree physiology and irrigation efficiency is directly linked to controlling production costs and stabilising yields in a context of tighter water availability and evolving disease pressure.

The Australian industry is therefore not only expanding capacity but also investing in knowledge to manage climate and water risks. The integration of cooking and food‑application presentations, including high‑profile chefs, indicates a deliberate effort to connect technical production advances with end‑market differentiation and branding, which should underpin demand for premium and value‑added products.

Weather & regional outlook

Weather currently plays a mixed role across key production regions. In Spain, early‑summer heat events have pushed temperatures towards 40°C in several inland areas in June, intensifying water‑stress concerns but arriving largely after the critical bloom period. At the same time, regional producer groups still expect higher output thanks to earlier season conditions and expanded planted area.

In California, recent season updates highlight ongoing challenges from diseases such as Red Leaf Blotch, with extension services stressing orchard‑by‑orchard management based on observed disease pressure and irrigation practices. For Australia, the focus in the run‑up to the October conference will be on water allocations and storage levels ahead of the 2026/27 season, given that water pricing remains a key driver of orchard profitability and potential future supply growth.

Trading outlook (next 1–3 months)

• Buyers: Consider gradually extending coverage on preferred origins (Spain, US, Australia) while prices remain in their current EUR 6–8/kg band for conventional grades. Use any short‑term dips from currency moves or local harvest pressure to lock in supply for Q4 2026 and early 2027.
• Shellers & growers: Maintain disciplined selling, focusing on forward contracts with reliable counterparties rather than heavily discounting. The strategic marketing initiatives in Australia and firm Asian demand argue against aggressive price cuts for high‑quality grades.
• Industrial users: For organic and specialty varieties such as Marcona and premium Nonpareil, secure a higher share of needs early; limited availability and branding value are likely to keep these segments relatively firm versus standard kernels.

Short‑term price indication (3‑day directional view)

• US (Carmel, Nonpareil, kernels, EUR/kg): Sideways to slightly firm; no major supply news and steady export interest point to a stable range around current levels.
• Spain (Guara, Valencia, Marcona, EUR/kg): Mostly steady; larger expected 2026/27 crop caps upside, but ongoing heat and strong EU demand limit downside risk in the very short term.
• Australia (export parity, EUR/kg equivalent): Stable; market more influenced by expectations and forward demand than immediate spot flows ahead of the October conference.