Almond Market Tightens as Exports Surge and Crop Outlook Softens

Almond prices are firming as strong August shipments collide with growing concerns that the 2026 California crop will undershoot earlier expectations. Exports are leading demand, inventories are manageable, and early signs of tree stress add a bullish undertone for the 2026/27 season. August marked a forceful start to the new crop year. Shipments jumped 20.5% year-on-year to 190 million lbs, driven almost entirely by exports, while domestic offtake softened slightly. At the same time, early harvest data and field reports point to a smaller crop and smaller kernel sizes than expected in key producing areas, particularly in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley. With carry-in at moderate levels and the industry only around one-fifth sold, the market is recalibrating toward higher price levels and tighter forward availability.

Prices

Almond prices have risen by approximately EUR 0.28–0.37 per kg (30–40 US cents per lb) over the past month as buyers react to evidence that the new crop may come in below initial expectations. Spot quotes for U.S. Carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22 are currently indicated around EUR 6.70/kg FAS Washington D.C., while organic Nonpareil 27/30 is around EUR 9.35/kg FOB.
Spanish Marcona and Valencia kernels are also tracking higher, with most grades edging up EUR 0.05–0.10/kg since mid-August. This synchronized firmness across origins reflects the global role of California in setting the price floor and the market’s quick re-pricing once lower crop potential and quality concerns became visible.

Supply & Demand

August shipments totaled 190 million lbs versus 157.8 million lbs a year earlier, a 20.5% increase. Domestic shipments fell 3.3% to 48.4 million lbs, but exports surged 31% to 143.2 million lbs. India led demand with 44.2 million lbs (versus 16.3 million lbs last year), nearly tripling year-on-year volumes, while Italy (9.9 million lbs) and Pakistan (8.1 million lbs) also posted strong gains.
Early crop receipts in August reached 401 million lbs compared to 259 million lbs a year ago, largely reflecting an earlier and more synchronized harvest rather than a larger total crop. Industry new sales in August were 138.8 million lbs, below last year’s 184.1 million lbs, leaving the sector only about 22–23% sold depending on whether the crop finishes closer to 2.60 or 2.70 billion lbs. An edible carry-in of 447 million lbs on 1 August provides a reasonable buffer but does not offset the risk of a smaller new crop.

Fundamentals & Crop Outlook

Market focus is shifting from receipts timing to total crop size and quality. Earlier-season estimates placed the 2026 crop between 2.65–2.70 billion lbs. Updated views now cluster around 2.55–2.65 billion lbs, reflecting weaker field yields and smaller kernels in key regions. In the central and southern areas, Nonpareil is averaging about 30 kernels/oz and Independence about 32 kernels/oz, roughly one size smaller than last year, while northern orchards are seeing only slightly larger sizes.
Tree health is an emerging concern. Orchards from Bakersfield to Fresno show significant leaf loss and stress following harvest, compounded by heavy mite pressure. These stressed trees may not set buds as well for next year, introducing downside risk to the 2027 crop as well. With the industry sold only around one-fifth and shipments off to a strong export-led start, the fundamental backdrop leans structurally tighter than in recent seasons.

Weather and Growing Conditions

Recent reporting for the Central Valley points to a hot, dry pattern through mid-September, with daytime highs commonly in the mid-30s to low 40s °C in the southern San Joaquin Valley and warm nights. This continues the stress seen during late harvest and is not ideal for tree recovery ahead of bud differentiation. While immediate nut quality impacts for the 2026 crop are mostly locked in, sustained stress increases the probability of yield and quality issues for the following season.
Moisture deficits also elevate pest and mite pressure, particularly in orchards that already experienced heavy infestations in summer. Growers with the ability to irrigate adequately and manage mites aggressively will be better positioned, but overall, the weather narrative supports a tighter medium-term supply outlook rather than a recovery.

Trading Outlook

• Short-term (next 2–4 weeks): Prices are biased higher to sideways as buyers in India and other key export markets continue to cover, while sellers test higher offers on tightening crop expectations.
• Medium-term (Q4 2026–Q1 2027): If the crop verifies closer to 2.55–2.60 billion lbs and tree stress persists, further appreciation is likely, especially for larger sizes and premium grades. Carry-in is moderate but not ample enough to absorb a clearly smaller crop.
• Buyers: Consider advancing coverage for Q4 and early 2027 needs, particularly for Nonpareil and larger sizes, to hedge against further price increases and potential sizing shortages.
• Sellers/Growers: With only ~22–23% sold, there is room to pace additional sales. However, given tree-health risks and strong export pull, a strategy of incremental selling on rallies rather than heavy early-season commitments appears prudent.

3-day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• US (FAS, main ports): EUR prices for standard U.S. Carmel and Nonpareil kernels expected to hold firm to slightly higher as export demand remains active.
• EU (FOB Spain): Spanish Marcona and Valencia indications likely to track California firmness, with a mild upward bias supported by local and re-export demand.
• South Asia (CFR India/Pakistan, implied): Replacement values expected to stay under upward pressure, reflecting strong August shipments and active forward buying interest.