Almond Prices Hold Firm as US Shipments Edge Higher and Spanish Premiums Stay Elevated

Almond kernel prices in both Spain and the US are holding broadly steady into late June, with only marginal week‑on‑week changes and a slight firm tone driven by resilient export demand and tightening premium grades. The near‑term balance looks neutral‑to‑slightly supportive, especially for high‑quality and organic kernels. Spot markets in Spain and the US are showing stable quotes, with Spanish Marcona and Valencia varieties still pricing at a clear premium over standard US California Carmel and Nonpareil kernels when converted into EUR. Recent US trade data for May point to modest year‑on‑year shipment growth and firmer sentiment on selected grades, while Spanish domestic benchmarks remain underpinned by limited farmer selling and ongoing drought and water‑policy concerns. Over the next few days, mostly hot, dry weather in California and Spain should support good crop progress but also keep supply risks on the radar.

Prices

All prices below are indicative spot levels as of 26 June 2026, converted to EUR using ~0.93 EUR/USD:

Spanish spot Marcona prices reported at key Spanish exchanges in mid‑June (around 7.30 EUR/kg for Marcona in Albacete) are broadly consistent with FOB indications, confirming a stable but firm premium for domestic high‑quality kernels.

Supply & Demand Drivers

• US export demand improving: Recent industry reports show May 2026 California almond shipments at roughly 217 million lbs, up about 2.6–2.8% year on year, signalling gradually improving export demand despite weaker US domestic offtake.
• Shifting trade flows: Export demand is reportedly rotating away from India toward Turkey and parts of Western Europe, which may alter container availability and freight costs into Mediterranean destinations, including Spain.
• Premium grade tightness: Market commentary highlights tightening availability for top Nonpareil and similar premium grades, contributing to the firmness seen in organic and high‑spec kernels versus standard SSR grades.
• Spanish domestic support: Spanish benchmark prices for Marcona and Comuna have edged higher on a yearly basis, supported by limited farmer selling and structural water and cost pressures in Mediterranean almond areas.

Fundamentals & Weather

California remains the dominant global supplier, and recent analysis points to improving shipment momentum but a more cautious outlook for medium‑term supply as water constraints, regulatory pressure and orchard removals cap further acreage growth. Longer‑term research anticipates a plateau and gradual decline in California almond yields after the late‑2020s, reinforcing a more balanced market versus the oversupply of earlier years.

Official and trade analysis in early 2026 indicate that spring weather in California was generally favourable for bloom and pollination, supporting the 2026 crop potential after several volatile seasons, although earlier heat episodes and ongoing water concerns continue to inject uncertainty into final yields.

Short-Term Weather Outlook (Next 3 Days)

• California (US): Central Valley almond areas are expected to remain seasonally hot and mostly dry over the next three days, with daytime highs well above 30°C and no significant rainfall. This supports irrigation‑driven crop development but sustains water‑use scrutiny and potential future regulatory risks.
• Spain: Key Spanish regions (Andalusia, Aragon, Catalonia, Valencian Community) face hot to very hot conditions under the current European heat pattern, with temperatures widely above seasonal norms and limited precipitation. Short‑term, this favours kernel filling in irrigated orchards but adds stress in marginal rain‑fed groves.

3-Day Price Outlook & Trading Guidance

Trading Outlook (next 3–7 days)

• Buyers (roasters, confectionery, paste users): Consider covering nearby needs in standard US Carmel SSR grades while prices remain flat and export competition is only gradually strengthening; keep a more cautious, staggered approach for premium Nonpareil and organic kernels where tightness is more evident.
• Spanish buyers: With domestic Marcona and Valencia varieties retaining a clear premium to imported US kernels, evaluate partial substitution into US origin for some industrial uses, especially if freight into Spain remains manageable.
• Growers and handlers (ES/US): Given firm undertones and supportive export data, there is little pressure to discount high‑quality stocks in the immediate term; selective forward sales on price rallies may be preferable to aggressive spot selling.

3-Day Directional Price View (EUR, key indications)

• US origin, FAS/FOB (Carmel SSR, Nonpareil): Stable to slightly firmer in EUR terms, supported by steady USD prices and mildly supportive shipment data.
• Spanish Marcona/Valencia (FOB Madrid / domestic exchanges): Stable with an upward bias, underpinned by tight premium supply and hot, dry weather in producing regions.
• Organic kernels (ES & US): Firm; no near‑term relief expected given structurally limited supply and good demand from EU speciality buyers.