Almond Prices Surge as Weather Hits Key Origins and Stocks Tighten

Almond kernel prices are entering a sharp bullish phase, with Indian domestic values already up about ₹300 per kg in three months and market participants bracing for another ₹200 per kg rise as supply shortfalls deepen. A rare simultaneous production squeeze in California, Australia and Jammu & Kashmir is tightening global and Indian availability just as import costs and a stronger US dollar lift landed prices. With new Californian crop arrivals only from March and importers still cautious after years of losses, the near-term balance of power has shifted clearly in favour of sellers and origin shippers.

Prices

Domestic Indian almond kernel prices have moved sharply higher. California kernels rose from about ₹930–940 per kg in early August to roughly ₹1,050–1,060 per kg by August 21, while bold-quality kernels are quoted as high as ₹1,150 per kg. This implies fortnightly gains of around ₹120–130 per kg and a cumulative increase near ₹300 per kg over the past three months, with traders now expecting an additional ₹200 per kg upside in the coming weeks.

International reference offers in Europe and the US confirm a firmer tone, though the move is more gradual than in India. Recent export offers for US shelled almonds (Carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22) and organic nonpareil, converted to EUR, cluster around €6.6–6.7/kg FAS/FOB for standard US kernels and about €9.3/kg for organic product. Spanish Marcona and Valencia types mostly trade between €5.5 and €8.8/kg FOB, with small but consistent week‑on‑week upticks of about €0.05/kg, indicating the start of a broader global repricing rather than a purely local spike.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, an estimated drop in California’s almond production from about 3.05 billion pounds to 2.45 billion pounds due to unfavourable weather has removed a substantial volume from global availability. With the new crop not expected to reach international buyers before March, key importing regions remain dependent on limited carry‑in stocks for several months. At the same time, shipping data show that 2025/26 export shipments from California have been running below the previous season, reflecting both smaller supply and cautious selling strategies.

Australia, usually a crucial Southern Hemisphere counter‑seasonal supplier in August, is also struggling with weather‑related losses. Its 2026 crop is reported to be about 40% below normal, sharply curbing fresh export flows at a time when buyers typically look to diversify away from US origin. In India, procurement is further complicated by nearly 50% lower supplies of bold almonds from Jammu & Kashmir versus previous years, significantly tightening the domestic physical market and amplifying the impact of international shortages on local prices.

Demand fundamentals remain broadly supportive. Almonds retain a strong position in health‑oriented snacks, confectionery and bakery, and substitution into other nuts is limited because global tree‑nut supplies are also tight in several segments. In India specifically, festival‑season demand is approaching, and current price momentum is encouraging some buyers to advance purchases to avoid further rises. Nevertheless, high absolute price levels may prompt some down‑trading in retail packs and industrial formulations if the rally extends too far into Q4.

Fundamentals & Macro Drivers

The current rally is fundamentally supply‑driven, but currency and cost factors are amplifying the move. Overseas booking costs for Indian importers have jumped in line with higher origin offers and elevated freight and insurance costs on some routes. At the same time, a stronger US dollar against the Indian rupee has raised the local currency cost of imports, forcing traders either to pass on higher prices or reduce volumes. Given the thin domestic stocks and lower local crop, most traders are opting to maintain rupee margins, reinforcing the uptrend.

Importers’ behaviour is another key element of the market structure. After suffering significant losses during the previous five years of often weak and volatile almond prices, many Indian importers have cut forward exposure and are restricting bookings to near‑term demand. Container estimates for September remain low, suggesting that pipeline supplies into India will not normalise quickly. Globally, recent industry position reports from California indicate reduced carry‑in stocks and a smaller crop, which together lower the buffer against any further weather or logistical disruptions during the upcoming harvest and shipping campaign.

Weather remains a central risk factor across origins. California’s almond belt is sensitive to heat stress during the growing season and to rainfall during harvest; recent outlooks pointing to possible late‑summer and early‑autumn rain events raise concerns over quality downgrades and further harvesting delays. In Australia, adverse conditions earlier in the season already curtailed nut set and nut fill, limiting any short‑term recovery in output. In Jammu & Kashmir, orchards have also been affected by unfavourable weather patterns, and given the long lead time to expand bearing area, domestic Indian production is unlikely to offset these losses before the next marketing year.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

With global production down, domestic Indian stocks thin and importer coverage still light, the near‑term price risk remains skewed to the upside. The rapid ₹120–130 per kg increase in the past two weeks and roughly ₹300 per kg gain over three months suggest a market in the middle of a strong rebalancing phase rather than at its end. Market participants widely anticipate another ₹200 per kg rise in Indian almond kernel prices as current tightness extends into the pre‑March period, provided there is no abrupt demand destruction or macro shock.

• Industrial users (roasters, confectioners): Consider securing 2–3 months of coverage at current levels, prioritising core specifications (Carmel SSR, Nonpareil) while keeping optionality on volumes beyond Q4 2026. Use staggered purchases to average entry levels in case of short‑term corrections.
• Importers and wholesalers: Maintain disciplined forward exposure, but avoid being structurally short into late 2026 given tight Californian and Australian supply and low Kashmir output. Focus on diversified origin portfolios (US plus Spain) to mitigate further origin‑specific weather risks.
• Retail and food‑service buyers: Prepare for higher shelf prices through Q4 2026 and early 2027. Reformulating pack sizes and mix (e.g., more blended nut packs) can help manage consumer price sensitivity if the forecast additional ₹200 per kg increase materialises.

Short-Term Price Direction (3-Day View)

• India, domestic kernels: Bias firmly upward over the next three days as limited stocks, cautious importer bookings and strong pre‑festival interest continue to support higher offers.
• US export market (FAS/FOB, EUR): Slight upward drift expected, with offers for standard grades likely to edge up by around €0.05–0.10/kg as sellers respond to strong Asian and Indian pull.
• European FOB (Spain): Mildly firm tone; Marcona and Valencia kernels are likely to hold current gains with a modest upside bias in response to tighter global fundamentals and higher replacement costs from California.