Almond Rally Extends as California Crop Tightens and Demand Holds Firm

California almond prices are finishing the 2025/26 season on a markedly firmer footing, with key benchmarks up 26–32% and spot values still edging higher into mid‑August. Tightening effective supply, robust exports and improved confidence after strong Q1 sales have shifted market sentiment from surplus-driven to cautiously bullish. After a volatile year marked by an initially larger crop forecast and lingering stock overhang, the almond market has rebalanced around a smaller-than-expected California harvest and resilient overseas demand. Prices for Standard 5% and Nonpareil have broken decisively above recent averages, supported by lower carryout, solid shipments to Europe and the Middle East, and reduced uncertainty around 2025/26 supplies. With early 2026/27 crop ideas clustered just below this season’s output, the market is entering the new campaign with firmer fundamentals and limited downside, though demand from key Asian buyers remains a watchpoint.

Prices

Over the 2025/26 season, California Standard 5% climbed from about EUR 5.60/kg to roughly EUR 7.10/kg equivalent, a gain of 26.5%. Nonpareil Extra 23/25 rose even faster, from around EUR 6.40/kg to EUR 8.50/kg, up 32.1% (FX ~1.10 USD/EUR, indicative). By 13 August, Standard 5% reached about EUR 7.55/kg and Nonpareil about EUR 9.00/kg, confirming continued upward momentum.

Physical kernel offers mirror this firmer tone. Recent US Carmel SSR offers around Washington D.C. are quoted near EUR 6.65/kg FAS, while organic Nonpareil SSR 27/30 is near EUR 9.25/kg FOB. Spanish almonds trade at a premium in key types, with Marcona 14/16 around EUR 8.15/kg and organic Nonpareil 27/30 near EUR 11.40/kg FOB Madrid.

Supply & Demand

California entered 2025/26 with a carryout of 483.8 million lbs, already below initial expectations. Although the USDA initially projected a 3.0 billion lb crop, actual receipts are closer to 2.7 billion lbs, pulling total effective supply down and helping clear surplus stocks. Ending carryover is estimated at 494.2 million lbs, about 4% lower year on year, leaving the pipeline noticeably tighter.

Season shipments slipped just 0.6% to 2.63 billion lbs, but the composition shifted. Exports rose 3% to 2.03 billion lbs, offsetting an 11.3% decline in domestic use to 595.3 million lbs. Europe remained the key growth engine, taking 681.2 million lbs (+5%), while the Middle East added 3% to reach 351.3 million lbs. Shipments to India fell 11% and China/Hong Kong dropped 34%, in line with broader USDA data showing weaker Chinese intake and stronger flows to alternative destinations such as Turkey.

Fundamentals & Weather

Within the season, prices rallied strongly in August–September as the smaller crop became evident, then consolidated between roughly EUR 6.40–7.00/kg (Standard 5% equivalent) through December. A softer tone from January to March reflected demand pushback and economic uncertainty, but this reversed as sales and shipments accelerated. January sales hit 298 million lbs, 25% above the prior year, while February and March shipments posted very strong volumes, restoring confidence and drawing down uncommitted stocks.

Recent industry data through June confirm that export strength has persisted while domestic demand is lagging, contributing to lower per‑capita US availability for almonds. Weather conditions in California’s main production regions in early summer have been seasonally warm to hot, but without major disease pressure or prolonged rainfall episodes, limiting new crop risks so far. Market attention is now shifting from old‑crop pipeline management to the size and quality of the upcoming 2026/27 harvest.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

Early estimates place the 2026/27 California crop between 2.65 and 2.70 billion lbs, broadly in line with 2025/26 and well below earlier structural highs. Combined with a lower carryout and solid export commitments into 2026/27, this suggests a more balanced market with less downside from oversupply. However, weak demand signals from parts of Asia and softer US domestic offtake remain key risks, particularly if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.

• Origin sellers: Consider scaling forward sales on price strength above the recent EUR 7.5–8.0/kg band (Standard 5% equivalent), especially for Nonpareil, while keeping some upside open in case of weather or quality issues.
• Importers and roasters: Maintain at least partial coverage for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 needs, prioritising core sizes and Nonpareil grades where supply is relatively tighter.
• End‑users: Evaluate selective substitutions (e.g., Spanish Guara or Valencia for Nonpareil in processed applications) to manage cost escalation while maintaining product quality.

Short‑Term Price Direction (3‑Day View)

• US export offers (Carmel / Nonpareil, FAS/FOB): Slightly firmer bias in EUR terms, supported by tight nearby stocks and strong export interest.
• Spanish almonds (Marcona, Valencia, Guara, FOB): Stable to mildly higher as buyers adjust to stronger Californian benchmarks and seasonal demand.
• Premium organic Nonpareil: Firm, with limited spot liquidity and strong price support above EUR 9.0/kg.