Almonds Market Surges Amid Robust Exports and Large Inventories

The global almonds market enters the 2025 marketing year with a mix of optimism and caution. According to the Almond Board of California’s latest July 2025 position report, U.S. almond shipments reached an impressive 197 million pounds for the month, marking a robust 10% year-on-year increase. This upswing is fueled by dynamic export demand, particularly from India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Meanwhile, U.S. domestic shipments continued their downward trend, falling by 5.6% as consumer demand softens amid high retail prices and shifting dietary preferences. Total shipments for the 2024/25 crop year (August–July) totaled 2,646 million pounds—slightly below last year by 1.7%—reinforcing the sector’s reliance on foreign markets, which now account for 75% of overall demand.

Export growth was chiefly propelled by remarkable gains to Southeast Asia (+25%), India (+6%), and the Middle East (+5%), even as sales to China/Hong Kong and North Africa declined sharply. The record July new sales figure (100 million pounds, +43% y/y) underscores buyer confidence and is expected to lessen inventory pressure in coming months, though commitments and carryover remain high. With uncommitted inventory up 12% at 299 million pounds and a total carryover of 515 million pounds, supply is substantial—sufficient to bridge to the next harvest even as late-season weather concerns emerge in California, Spain, and Iran. This complex interplay of global trade flows, shifting demand patterns, and weather volatility will drive price formation and trading strategies for the months ahead.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Grade/Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Almonds kernels	US	carmel, ssr, 18/20	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.78	0.00	Neutral
Almonds kernels	US	carmel, ssr 20/22	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.72	0.00	Neutral
Almonds kernels	US	natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr (Organic)	Washington D.C.	FOB	9.38	0.00	Neutral
Almond kernels	ES	marcona, 12/14	Madrid	FOB	6.71	0.00	Neutral
Almond kernels	IR	Mamra, grade a	Tehran	FOB	11.18	+0.23	Bullish
Almonds	IR	Sangi, inshell	Tehran	FOB	1.88	+0.06	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Total U.S. shipments (2024/25): 2,646 million lbs (-1.7% y/y)
• Export share: 75% of total demand; Exports +0.6% y/y
• Domestic shipments: 50 million lbs in July (-5.6% y/y); trend declining
• New crop receipts: 2,713 million lbs, carryover 515 million lbs (ample supply)
• Key markets: India (45.9m lbs), Germany (14.8m), Spain (12.1m), Netherlands (8.4m), UAE (6.4m)
• Strongest y/y growth: Southeast Asia (+25%), India (+6%), Middle East (+5%), Europe (+1%)
• Declining markets: China/Hong Kong (-52%), North Africa (-22%)

📊 Fundamentals

• July new sales: 100 million lbs (+43% y/y), export sales +75% y/y
• Committed inventory: 215 million lbs (9% below previous year)
• Uncommitted inventory: 299 million lbs (+12% y/y)
• Carryover stock: 515 million lbs (ample buffer)
• Market sentiment: Neutral in the U.S. and Spain, bullish in Iran for premium grades

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• California: Late-season heatwaves and ongoing drought concerns could impact kernel fill and quality for the remainder of the 2025 harvest. Water availability is a risk factor for late-maturing almond varieties.
• Spain: Mild spring enabled good pollination, but summer heat may lower yields in non-irrigated areas, though irrigated orchards remain stable.
• Iran: Mixed weather patterns with localized hailstorms affecting higher-altitude orchards, supporting higher premiums for top grades.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Receipts/Prod. (m lbs)	Carryover (m lbs)	Export Share (%)
USA	2,713	515	75
Spain	390 (est.)	45 (est.)	60
Iran	75 (est.)	10 (est.)	30

📌 Market Drivers & Insights

• Strong July export shipments highlight resilience in key Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
• Sluggish U.S. domestic demand countered by vigorous overseas buying, especially stocks building in India.
• Inventories remain ample—bearish for prices unless weather threatens the next crop or exporters slow sales.
• China market remains weak; exporters are shifting focus to higher-growth regions.
• Price premiums persist for organic and specialty grades (notably Nonpareil and Mamra).

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📊 Long positions in premium grades (Mamra, Organic Nonpareil) favored given active Asian and Iranian demand.
• 📉 Short-term sales/hedging encouraged for standard U.S. grades amid large inventory and flat price action.
• 🌦️ Monitor weather in California for any late-season threats—potential for price spike if adverse events occur.
• 🌍 Diversify exports toward Southeast Asia and the Middle East where demand growth is strongest.
• 🔎 Track August Board report for updated loss/exemption adjustments, critical for Q4 positioning.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• U.S. standard grades: €6.70–6.80/kg, sideways, barring weather shock
• Organic Nonpareil (US): €9.30–9.45/kg, steady with firm tone
• Mamra premium (IR): €11.20–11.30/kg, upward pressure from strong Asia demand